Kenya’s mass protests expose African fury with IMF

Source: Financial TIMES, Andres Schipani in Nairobi and Aanu Adeoye, west Africa correspondent
Friday July 5, 2024

William Ruto is latest president of developing country caught between multilateral lenders and angry population

As Kenya reels from deadly anti-tax riots that have rocked east Africa’s most advanced economy, the target of protesters’ anger remains starkly clear in murals on the walls of central Nairobi — and it is not just the government.

“IMF keep your hands off Kenya,” said one painted slogan. As live rounds crackled and police deployed tear gas in Nairobi’s streets, 25-year-old protester Job Muremi said: “The IMF is involved in bringing this chaos upon Kenya.”

For many Kenyans, the unrest that forced President William Ruto last month to withdraw a finance bill aiming to raise more than $2bn in taxes has laid bare the role of Washington-based multilateral lenders in their country’s policymaking.

With the IMF seen as driving Ruto’s fiscal and austerity policies, thousands of young, often jobless protesters poured on to the streets with placards such as “We ain’t IMF bitches” and “Kenya is not IMF’s lab rat.” Nationwide protests raged even after the bill’s withdrawal, as demonstrators demanded Ruto quit and labelled him a “puppet” of the fund.

Kenya is not the only African country where citizens are rejecting austerity measures often imposed to appease multilateral lenders that demand fiscal discipline in exchange for cheap loans.

In Nigeria, where President Bola Tinubu has delivered a series of shock therapies — including reducing petrol subsidies, cutting electricity support and devaluing the currency — labour unions have gone on strike in protest. The country received a $2.25bn World Bank loan package last month, accompanied by praise for the “critical reforms” under way.

Olusegun Obasanjo, former president of Nigeria, told the Financial Times that the prescriptions from the IMF and World Bank “may work for developed countries” but were not right for emerging economies. African states should “be the architects of our own fortune”, he added.

“If the World Bank and IMF are the architects for us, we will fail,” Obasanjo said. He said staff at the lenders were “brilliant, first class in Cambridge and Ivy League schools” but unfit to make “recommendations for millions of people in developing countries”.

The IMF said meeting development needs in sub-Saharan Africa required “improvement in the prioritisation, quality and efficiency of public expenditure”. The fund “does actively take into consideration country specificities when advising on policy reforms. While each country’s context is different, building public trust and support for policies and reforms is essential for sustaining domestic ownership,” it said.

Supporters of the Washington-based lenders argue the IMF provides loans at interest rates far below those available commercially to countries that might otherwise risk default, while seeking to place them on a sustainable footing. It does offer debt relief, including to Somalia in December. The World Bank, which offers development funding, also seeks sustainable reforms.

Charlie Robertson, head of macro strategy at the emerging markets-focused asset manager FIM Partners, called the IMF a “convenient scapegoat”. “The alternative for most countries is borrowing from the IMF at a low percentage or borrowing at double digits from commercial lenders at home or abroad.”

Robertson described the IMF as the “lender of last resort” and said most of the fund’s prescriptions were decisions that governments would have to make anyway.

Many across Africa believe the belt-tightening regimes do little to reduce inequality and improve livelihoods, leaving leaders such as Ruto in the tight spot of needing to raise taxes and cut spending while knowing that doing so is likely to spark political upheaval. A similar pattern has played out in Latin America, most recently in Ecuador, where conditions attached to IMF loans in 2019 led to a backlash in the streets.

“African countries are watching what’s happening in Kenya,” said Nairobi-based economist Vincent Kimosop. “Those who are seated in high offices should not be sitting pretty.”

Other African countries will be forced to make tough decisions soon. Oil-producing Angola is attempting to cut fuel subsidies, while Ethiopia — which is gingerly emerging from a brutal civil war — is negotiating an IMF loan and reforms package. That may include a sharp devaluation of its birr currency, in a country struggling with high inflation and a chronic foreign currency crunch.

That familiar conundrum for emerging market leaders is sharpened by high government debt. Last year, a record 54 developing countries — equivalent to 38 per cent of the total — allocated 10 per cent or more of government revenues to interest payments, with nearly half of those in Africa, said the UN trade and development agency.

Kenya’s turmoil showed trouble can arise from “getting too in line with what lending officials in Washington want, while being too tone deaf with what people in Nairobi demand”, said a senior foreign diplomat in Nairobi.

Protesters in Kenya have been prepared to risk their lives to fight reforms initiated by what they consider a profligate government.

The catalyst for their anger was a bill increasing taxes on basics such as bread and sanitary pads. Demonstrators stormed parliament last week, unleashing a violent police crackdown that has killed at least 39 people.

Uhuru Kenyatta, Ruto’s predecessor and former boss, borrowed heavily from Beijing and international financial markets in the era of low interest rates to fund rail, road and port projects. But many of these schemes failed to generate enough income to pay back debts.

Ruto, a self-styled “hustler” with a rags-to-riches story, took office in 2022 vowing to ease the financial burden on Kenyans. But his attempts to levy new taxes have earned him the nickname “Zakayo”, the Swahili name for the biblical tax collector Zacchaeus.

The president, who is also one of Kenya’s wealthiest businessmen, is struggling to comply with a $3.6bn IMF bailout launched four years ago that requires raising revenues and slashing spending. Interest payments on Kenya’s debt have been eating up almost 38 per cent of annual revenues, said the World Bank.

“The protesters who are at the forefront . . . feel the IMF does not put out fires, that it starts them. We have a past experience, a difficult experience with the IMF,” said economist Kimosop, referring to the 1980s when, as a condition of emergency lending, the IMF demanded free-market reforms.

The structural adjustment programmes, or “SAPs”, imposed deep cuts on public services and insisted on privatisation as well as trade and financial liberalisation.

Nigeria too enacted a structural adjustment programme in the 1980s, leading to foreign exchange reforms and a stalled attempt to diversify away from oil. The IMF-linked programme continues to be blamed for destroying meagre social safety nets. Fela Kuti, the late Nigerian musician, sang that SAP spelt “Suck African People — suck dem dry”.

North African countries also have a long history with the fund. In March, Egypt floated its currency to help secure $8bn of IMF loans, leading to a sharp drop against the dollar. Despite widespread anger over spiralling prices amid high poverty rates, the streets have remained quiet after a ban on unauthorised protests.

The IMF is not universally disliked on the continent. After Ghana refused to contemplate an IMF programme to rescue a flailing economy in 2022, civil society groups demanded the government reconsider. Ghana went to the IMF not long after; the lender assured Ghanaians the programme would protect the vulnerable.

Kenya, which has never defaulted, sold new debt in February — at a steep borrowing cost of 10 per cent — allaying fears that it might follow defaults by Ethiopia, Ghana and Zambia. Before the protests, the IMF said Kenya needed to make “a sizeable and upfront fiscal adjustment” and praised the controversial tax increase.

After the protests, “the government may signal to the IMF that doing that is politically impossible”, said a senior official at a multilateral lender.

Ruto’s U-turn left his efforts to meet IMF targets in doubt. Credit rating agency S&P said Kenya was unlikely to achieve its fiscal targets, because “the administration will now become more cautious about taxing the economy”.

Responding to the protests, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said the fund’s goal in Kenya was “to help . . . improve its economic prospects and the wellbeing of its people”.

Vincent Kwarula, who launched a petition demanding the IMF cancel Kenya’s debt, rejects that. The IMF, he said, “has played a central role in perpetuating this crisis. We demand the IMF to keep its hands off Kenya and off Africa as a whole.”

Additional reporting by David Pilling in London and Heba Saleh in Cairo

Video on Current Crisis in Sudan

 Source: Aljazeera posted on 3 July 2024 a 12-minute video titled “What’s Happening in Sudan’s Civil War?” narrated by Sandra Gothmann.  

The video summarizes the events that led up to Sudan’s civil war and then focuses on the current situation there, especially in the western region of Darfur.  The overriding theme is that the world is not paying sufficient attention to ending the war and the growing humanitarian crisis.  

Ethiopia-Somaliland deal: Can the Horn of Africa rift be healed?

Source: BBC, By Kalkidan Yibeltal in Addis Ababa & Damian Zane in London,
Thursday July 4, 2024

Tempers remain high in the Horn of Africa seven months after a New Year’s Day deal saw the self-declared republic of Somaliland agree to lease part of its coastline to its landlocked neighbour Ethiopia.

Somalia is not happy about the maritime agreement, details of which remain murky.

Firstly, it believes the deal is unlawful and an “act of aggression” as it considers Somaliland, which broke away from Somalia in 1991 at the start of a protracted civil war, to be part of its territory.

It is also infuriated by reports that in return for use of a port, Ethiopia would become the first country to recognise Somaliland as a sovereign nation.

Both the African Union (AU) and the US have backed the territorial integrity of Somalia and urged all parties to cool tensions.

Turkey has now intervened diplomatically – bringing Ethiopian and Somali delegates together for talks in its capital, Ankara.

Were the negotiations successful?

Partially.

Ethiopia and Somalia’s foreign ministers did turn up in the Turkish capital on 1 July – but they refused to sit down for one-to-one discussions.

Turkey’s foreign ministry described the talks as “candid, cordial and forward-looking”.

The two sides have agreed to reconvene in September – and sources told the BBC if progress was made then, the two countries’ leaders might meet up. So there is hope.

Why is Turkey involved?

Ankara has close relations with Mogadishu – the two governments have signed a 10-year defence pact in which Turkey would help guard Somalia’s coastline and rebuild the Horn of African nation’s naval force.

According to Somalia’s President Hassan Sheik Mohamud, it was Ethiopia which requested that Turkey facilitate the talks.

It is suggested that Addis Ababa is keen to ease tensions as Somalia has been on an extensive diplomatic campaign to enlist support from countries in the West as well as Gulf states.

Nonetheless, there were “no indications” yet that Ethiopia was willing to walk away from the deal, President Mohamud said afterwards.

What did Ethiopia and Somaliland agree?

The exact wording of the deal signed by the leaders of Ethiopia and Somaliland has not been made public, which is a problem as there are differing versions of what the two sides agreed in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

An MoU is a statement of intent rather than a legally binding agreement but what seems clear is that Somaliland is ready to grant Ethiopia access to the sea for commercial traffic through a port, although it is not clear which port that would be.

There is also a military aspect. Somaliland has said it could lease a section of the coast to Ethiopia’s navy, a detail which has been confirmed by Addis Ababa.

In return, Somaliland would get a share in Ethiopia Airlines, the country’s successful national carrier.

But where things get sticky is whether Ethiopia said it would recognise Somaliland as an independent state – something which no other country has done in the 30 years since the former British protectorate said it was leaving Somalia.

On the day of the signing, Somaliland’s President Muse Bihi Abdi said the agreement included a section stating that Ethiopia would recognise Somaliland as an independent country at some point in the future.

Ethiopia has not confirmed this. Instead, in its attempt to clarify what was in the MoU, the government on 3 January said the deal included “provisions… to make an in-depth assessment towards taking a position regarding the efforts of Somaliland to gain recognition”.

Why is this so controversial?

For Somalia, Somaliland is an integral part of its territory. Any suggestion that it could make a deal with another country or that bits of it could be leased without the approval of Mogadishu is highly problematic.

The day after the MoU was signed, Somalia described the deal as an act of “aggression” that was an “impediment to… peace and stability”. It also recalled its ambassador from Addis Ababa.

Ethiopia’s ambassador to Somalia subsequently left Mogadishu.

In the immediate aftermath of the deal, Somalia’s president also stepped up the rhetoric saying: “We will defend our country, we will defend it by all means necessary and seek the support of any ally willing to help us.”

He also called on youths “to prepare for the defence of our country” and described Ethiopia as his country’s “enemy”.

Ethiopia and Somalia have a long history of rivalry.

In 1977 and 1978, Ethiopia and Somalia fought a devastating war for control of what is now called the Somali region of Ethiopia.

There have also been protests in Mogadishu against the deal, with tens of thousands turning up to express their opposition.

What is the status of Somaliland?

Somaliland, a former British protectorate, declared itself independent from Somalia in 1991 and has all the trappings of a country, including a working political system, regular elections, a police force and its own currency.

Over the decades it has also escaped much of the chaos and violence that have hit Somalia.
But its independence has not been recognised by any country.

If, as Somaliland said, Ethiopia has agreed to recognise it at some point, it would have a profound impact on the Horn of Africa region.

Why does Ethiopia want the deal?

Last year, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed described access to the sea as an existential issue.
Ethiopia lost its ports when Eritrea seceded in the early 1990s. With more than 100 million people, it is the most populous landlocked country in the world.

Mr Abiy’s statement raised fears that Ethiopia could try to achieve its goal by force.

It has described the deal with Somaliland as historic, and emphasised that its intentions are peaceful.
“The position announced by the government is strongly rooted in a desire to not engage in war with anyone,” Ethiopia’s communications office said in January.

But in an oblique reference to the controversy, Mr Abiy posted on X on 6 January that “if we expect things to happen in ways that we are used to or know or can predict, [opportunities] may pass us”.

He added that some sometimes thinking “out of the box” was needed to achieve goals.

What have others said?

The AU commission chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat was one of the first to call for calm and mutual respect “to de-escalate the simmering tension”.

His sentiment was shared by the US government, the Arab League and the European Union.
In late June during a UN security council meeting, senior US diplomat Robert A Wood said his country remained “concerned about tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, and the negative impact it is having on shared security interest”.

Egypt, which is at loggerheads with Ethiopia over a giant dam that has been built on the River Nile in the northern Ethiopian highlands, has also pledged support for Somalia.

Earlier this year, President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi reassured his Somali counterpart that Egypt stood by Somalia and supported “its security and stability”.

Somalia’s President Mohamud flew to Eritrea in January and in March as part of his efforts to galvanise regional support. Eritrea’s leader Isaias Afeworki was a close ally of his Ethiopian counterpart during a brutal civil war in northern Ethiopia between 2020 and 2022, but relations between the two countries have deteriorated since.

Eritrea is also reportedly concerned by Ethiopia’s ambitions to gain access to the coast.
Another neighbour, Kenya, which enjoys close relations with both Ethiopia and Somalia, has kept a low profile and has not yet formally commented, while Uganda has also not taken a clear position.

Saudi Arabia and China, two countries with important roles in the region, said they would support Somalia’s territorial integrity – something lauded as a diplomatic victory in Mogadishu.

At least three people killed in clan conflict in Dollo region in Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State

Source: Hiiraan Online, Thursday July 4, 2024

Jigjiga (HOL) – At least three people were killed and others wounded in an inter-clan conflict between two Somali militias in the Wardheer district of the Dollo region in Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State.

The Minister of Information of the Somali Regional State, Abdikhadir Rashid, told BBC Amharic on Wednesday that security forces reached the area and successfully settled the tension. He did not provide further details about the motive behind the conflict.

Last Tuesday, the Ogaden National Liberation Front condemned the conflict between the two communities in the Wardheer district and asked the government to separate the warring factions and stop the bloodshed immediately.

Recently, there has been clan conflict over agricultural land, but it is unclear what sparked the new fighting in the Wardheer district.

What Game Is Russia Playing in Sudan?

 Source: Eurasia Review published on 1 July 2024 a commentary titled “Sudanese Armed Forces Agrees to Russian Red Sea Base in Exchange for Weapons” by the Africa Defense Forum published by US Africa Command.  

The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) has revived talks with Russia for establishing a logistics and refueling base, “not a fully equipped naval facility,” in the Red Sea.  This raises the question if Russia plans to shift its previous support for the Rapid Support Forces to the SAF or tries to play both sides of the conflict.

Protests continue in Kenya as some are now calling for the president to step down

BY  EVELYNE MUSAMBI
Source: AP, Wednesday July 3, 2024

Protests continued in Kenya’s capital and elsewhere Tuesday over a finance bill that would raise the cost of living, even after the president said he would not sign it in the wake of the storming of parliament last week.

Police fired tear gas at protesters in Nairobi as many businesses remained closed for fear of looting. The main highway to Kenya’s second-largest city, Mombasa, was closed as protesters lit bonfires.

In Mombasa, five vehicles were burnt by protesters outside a hotel whose owner is alleged to have shot at protesters who were looting.

While there are concerns that President William Ruto might change his mind and sign the finance bill before next week’s deadline, some protesters are also calling on Ruto to resign and accusing him of bad governance.

But some members of the youth-led protests have expressed worries that other Kenyans are using the unrest as an excuse to cause violence. “Goons have infiltrated,” one organizer, Hanifa Farsafi, wrote on social media platform X on Tuesday.

Interior minister Kithure Kindiki on Tuesday said “criminals” were taking advantage of planned protests to “commit arson” and “terrorize” Kenyans. He warned that they were planning more violence on Thursday and Sunday and said the government was determined to stop them at “whatever cost”.

Last week’s protests were deadly as police opened fire. The two weeks of protests have left 39 people dead, according to the Kenya National Human Rights Commission. Ruto on Sunday put that number at 19.

The president has offered to have dialogue with Kenyan youth and has promised budget cuts on travel and hospitality for his office in line with some protesters’ demands. As unemployment remains high and prices rise, there has been outrage over the luxurious lives of the president and other senior officials.

Members of the youthful but leaderless protest movement have said they do not trust the president to implement his new austerity plans.

Kenya’s main opposition party on Tuesday called on Ruto’s government to take responsibility for the deaths that occurred last week.

Economist Ken Gichinga told The Associated Press that the government should undertake a different approach to tax reforms that will allow the economy to thrive.

“The Gen Zs are the most affected by the unemployment,” Gichinga said.

The Kenya National Human Rights Commission chairperson Roseline Odede told journalists the protests were infiltrated and the “demographics had changed” and turned violent.

Turkey to host second round of Ethiopia-Somalia in September: Fidan

Source: Al-Monitor, Wednesday July 3, 2024

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan meets with his counterpart, Taye Atske Selassie of Ethiopia, in Ankara, on May 9, 2024. – X/Ethiopian Minister of Foreign Affairs Taye Atske Selassie

Ethiopia and Somalia on Monday agreed to continue Turkey-mediated talks to resolve their disagreements after a controversial deal between Ethiopia and the breakaway region of Somaliland earlier this year brought the two countries to the brink of armed conflict.

Turkey “assumed the role of a facilitator,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told journalists in Ankara, following a meeting by his Somali and Ethiopian counterparts, Ahmed Moallim Fiqi and Taye Atske Selassie, who traveled to Ankara for the first round of the talks.

The ministers, who had a “candid” exchange as they explored a mutually acceptable framework to their disagreements during their talks, “agreed to pursue the ongoing dialogue with a view to resolving their issues and ensuring regional stability,” according to a joint statement issued after the three ministers’ press briefing.  

The second round of discussions will be held in Ankara on Sept. 2, Fidan said.

“It is no secret that, due to the complicated nature of the many dynamics at play, we will need further reflections on this issue,” he added. “In light of what we heard today, we remain hopeful for the future.”

The Jan. 1 deal signed between Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland and Ethiopia would grant Addis Ababa access to the Red Sea in return for the recognition of breakaway Somaliland. Somalia, which doesn’t recognize the de facto republic, rejected the agreement as a violation of its sovereignty.

Turkey has publicly backed the territorial integrity of Somalia, which is home to the largest Turkish military base abroad. But Ankara also has close ties with Addis Ababa, with Ethiopia purchasing more than a dozen drones from Turkey in 2021.

By David Ngira
Source: Amnesty International, Wednesday July 3, 2024

Somalia’s healthcare sector is ailing. This is despite the country receiving USD 4.5 Billion debt relief from IMF and the World Bank  last year which moved the country’s debt to GDP ratio from 64% to 6%. The relief followed protracted negotiations under the Highly indebted Poor Countries Initiative. 

The country’s investment in health has reduced, even though debt relief was premised on economic reforms including implementation of a poverty reduction strategy, increasing revenue collection, prioritization of spending on projects and enhancement of public finance and debt management capacity. 

Analysis indicates that Somalia’s health budget reduced significantly from 8.5% of the budget in 2023 to 4.8% in 2024 despite the reduction in debt repayment from 1.4% of the budget in 2023 to 0.12% of the budget in 2024. Incidentally, the increase in the overall budget by about 10% wasn’t felt in the health sector. This has called into question the country’s commitment to the right to health.

Amnesty International’s 2021 report on Somalia’s response to Covid-19 indicated that the country only spent 2% of the national budget on health in 2020 – far from the 15% obligation that African governments committed to allocating in the national health budgets in the Abuja Declaration. Three years on, Somalia’s poor health sector is still characterized by insufficient health personnel, high levels of child and maternal mortality, inadequate and largely under-equipped health facilities, low levels of immunization, and recurrent outbreaks of water borne diseases. All these undermine people’s right to adequate health. Although some progress has been made as reflected in the 2022-2026 strategic plan, the level of health provision still fails the expected human rights standards. This has worsened the suffering of people already struggling to adjust to the implications of the climate crisis on their livelihoods, including its impact on health, housing and food systems.

“Somalia’s poor health sector is still characterized by insufficient health personnel, high levels of child and maternal mortality, inadequate and largely under-equipped health facilities, low levels of immunization, and recurrent outbreaks of water borne diseases.” David Ngira, ESCR Researcher, Amnesty International

Somalia’s 2021, 2022 and 2023 budgets show a significant variance between the health budget and expenditure. For instance, 2022 expenditure indicates that only 1.3% of the overall budget was actually spent on health, against an overall allocation of 10.6% of the budget. Similarly, in 2023 Somalia allocated 8.5% of the overall budget to the health sector but only spent 7% of the overall budget on the same.

According to Transparency International, corruption has had an important impact on Somalia’s health sector which may result in an unexplained variance between the health budget and expenditure. Authorities should investigate this to identify how much of this variance is due to mismanagement, if any, of the health budget and take legal action against those responsible. Somalia’s development partners should work with the government to strengthen accounting systems and encourage greater fiscal transparency and public participation in budgeting. Expenditures on employee payments which account for most of the health budget must be scrutinized to ensure that the money goes to actual health workers.

Somalia must also work to increase its revenue through increased trade, progressive taxes, widening tax base and grants. It must also seal all loopholes for illicit financial flows. This will enhance resources available for allocation to the health sector. Its therefore urgent for the international community to accelerate the development of a Tax Treaty to help countries like Somalia deal with illicit cash outflow.

“Somalia must also work to increase its revenue through increased trade, progressive taxes, widening tax base and grants. It must also seal all loopholes for illicit financial flows.” David Ngira

To be sure, Somalia faces significant security and governance challenges. But military spending, which currently stands at 24% of the budget, must not prevent Somalia from matching its health policies and needs with appropriate budgetary allocations. This will enable the country to adhere to its constitutional and international obligations to guarantee accessible, affordable, and quality healthcare to its people.

Two years after coming into power, the Hassan Sheikh administration must now translate its political commitments into practical health gains for Somalis. This requires the government to allocate at least 15% of their budget to health, implement budgets prudently and ensure corruption doesn’t undermine the country’s progress towards health reforms and realization.

Dr. David Ngira is Economic, Social and Cultural Rights Researcher at Amnesty International’s Regional Office for East and Southern Africa

News

Sudan’s RSF claims it has captured a key city in the southeast

Source: Aljazeera, The army does not dispute RSF’s statement, but says the fighting is ongoing in Singa, the capital of Sennar state.

Published On 30 Jun 202430 Jun 2024

Paramilitary forces battling Sudan’s army for more than a year say they have captured a key state capital in the war-torn country’s southeast.

“We have liberated the 17th Infantry Division from Singa [the capital of Sennar state],” the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced on X on Saturday.

KEEP READING

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Over 750,000 people in Sudan at risk of starvation: Global hunger monitor

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Sudan’s army repels major assault on el-Fasher; kills RSF commander

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Sudan’s RSF captures key army stronghold of el-Fula

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A massacre, an exodus from Darfur and years of rehab for Sudanese refugees

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Al Jazeera’s Hiba Morgan, reporting from the capital Khartoum, said the RSF is gaining control of an increasing number of territories across Sudan, especially in eastern and western parts of the country’s south.

“They already control a large portion of the Darfur region, with the exception of el-Fasher, which is the only remaining city under the army’s and allied groups’ control,” she said.

Morgan said the Sudanese army does not dispute the RSF’s statement that it has taken control of the 17th Infantry Division.

“However, they say their forces are still present in the city and they are still fighting,” she said. “What we can definitely confirm is civilians have witnessed clashes and many of them have started leaving the city since yesterday [Saturday] and more people are leaving the city this [Sunday] morning.”

Millions displaced

Sudan has been gripped by war since April 2023, when fighting erupted between forces loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the RSF led by his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

The conflict in the country of 48 million has killed tens of thousands, displaced millions and triggered one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

Somali government denies negotiating with al-Shabab amidst military pause

Source: Hiiraan ONline, Saturday June 29, 2024

Mogadishu (HOL) – Somali government has denied social media reports that it is negotiating with the al-Qaeda-affiliated armed group al-Shabab, a few months after military operations against the group stopped.

National Security Adviser Hussein Moallim Mohamud wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that the government is not in talks with al-Shabab. He reiterated that President Mohamud has set clear conditions for any potential negotiations.

“They must sever any links with global terror groups and accept Somalia’s territorial integrity. They must be willing to pursue their political agenda peacefully,” the adviser said.

Two years ago, the Somali government declared a ‘total war’ against al-Shabab. The operations began when local people in the Hiiraan region organized themselves against the group. The government later joined the fight and took over the operation’s lead.

Despite setbacks the joint forces face, some elite figures and security experts have called for talks with al-Shabab. President Mohamud, speaking recently at the Oslo Forum, emphasized that the endgame with al-Shabab will ultimately involve dialogue. His remarks have sparked reactions from politicians and security commentators.

Since 2007, al-Shabab has been fighting the Somali government and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), a multidimensional mission authorized by the African Union and mandated by the United Nations Security Council.

Ethiopia, South Sudan to build 220-km cross-border road

Source: Xinhuanet, Saturday June 29, 2024

(Image File)

Ethiopia and South Sudan are set to build a 220-km cross-border road, following a 738-million-U.S.-dollar financial agreement signed in May 2023.

South Sudan’s Transitional National Legislative Assembly on Tuesday ratified the Ethiopia-South Sudan financial agreement to build a cross-border highway, the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement Thursday.

The ministry said the project aims to enhance connectivity and bolster economic ties between the two neighboring countries, underscoring the growing cooperation and mutually beneficial relationship between Ethiopia and South Sudan.

According to the financial agreement, Ethiopia will cover the cost of the road project. The deal designates South Sudan as the borrower and Ethiopia as the financier, and the repayment involves crude oil from South Sudan to Ethiopia. The construction of the road project will start upon the final authorization by South Sudanese President Salva Kiir.

The road on the South Sudanese side will connect Paloich, Maiwut and Pagak to Ethiopia’s border areas.

Another Look at the Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU

 Source: The Nanyang Technological University in Singapore published on 27 June 2024 an analysis titled “Ethiopia’s Red Sea Gambit: A Landlocked Nation in Search of an Alternative Port” by Johan Burger.  

The author reviews Ethiopia’s current standing in the Horn of Africa and the impact of its memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Somaliland to establish a port and naval base there.  He concludes implementation of the MOU could destabilize the region.

BREAKING: Former Somali Parliament Speaker Prof. Mohamed Osman Jawari dies at 79

Source: Hiiraan Online, Friday June 28, 2024

Mogadishu (HOL) – Former Somali Parliament Speaker Prof. Mohamed Osman Jawari passed away in Mogadishu on Friday afternoon after an illness, his family and friends confirmed.

Somali President’s Adviser on Constitutional Affairs, Hussein Sheikh Mohamud, announced the news of the veteran Somali politician and historian’s death on Somali National Television.

Prof. Jawari was born in the Afgoye district in the Lower Shabelle region in 1945. Though born in Afgoye, he was registered in Burhakaba district in the Bay region. Jawari graduated from Somali National University and was an expert with specializations in Islamic Sharia and Comprehensive Law.

He served as a minister in the administration of Siad Barre, whose government was the last to control the entire country before it was toppled in 1991.

Prof. Jawari was also a lawyer by profession. He worked for the UN and as an academic in Norway. Since 1960, he has contributed to the development of several Somali constitutions.

Kenya protesters call for President Ruto’s removal after tax bill dropped

Source: Aljazeera, Friday June 28, 2024

Protesters in Kenya are angry over the government’s economic policies [Monicah Mwangi/Reuters]

Police in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, have fired tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse demonstrators who rallied in another day of protests sparked by a controversial bill that would have raised taxes on essential goods.

Hundreds of people on Thursday took to the streets to call for President William Ruto’s removal, a day after he caved into young protesters’ demands to withdraw the deeply unpopular tax hike bill.

As protesters headed to Nairobi’s central business district, soldiers were deployed and police in anti-riot gear blocked access along roads leading to Ruto’s office at State House and Parliament of Kenya. Turnout by demonstrators was lower than in previous days after mass protests turned violent, killing more than 20 people, according to human rights groups.

The Kenya National Commission for Human Rights (KNCHR) said on social media on Thursday that it had received credible reports of live fire being used against “civilians protesting across the country, resulting in some deaths”. It did not specify where the alleged incidents took place.

Hundreds of protesters also rallied in the port city of Mombasa and the opposition bastion of Kisumu, where some blocked roads and lit fires, TV footage showed. Protests were also reported in Kisii and Migori.

Seven people – two women and five men – sustained gunshot wounds in Homa Bay Town in western Kenya, Citizen TV news reported. The outlet said they were shot by police while protesting and then rushed to Homa Bay County Teaching and Referral Hospital.

Protesters demand ‘Ruto must go!’

The youth-led protests kicked off last week and caught the authorities off-guard. Ruto’s government ricocheted between taking a tough line on the unrest and calling for dialogue.

On Wednesday, the president declined to sign the tax changes into law and withdrew the bill.

“The people have spoken,” he said, adding that he would seek “engagement with the young people of our nation”.

But protesters said they would still rally in memory of those killed in the demonstrations, criticising Ruto’s dramatic reversal as a case of too little, too late.

Al Jazeera’s Zein Basravi, reporting from the protests in Nairobi, said there was an “ebb and flow” on Thursday on the streets, with flare-ups of tension between police and protesters followed by relative calm.

Young protesters in the capital said they would stop when the president steps down while chants of “Ruto must go, Ruto must go!” could be heard throughout the day.

“They want a change in the presidential leadership, and they want Parliament absent of what they describe as corrupt parliamentarians who do not have their interests at heart,” Basravi said.

Kasmuel McOure, a Kenyan youth leader and award-winning pianist, told Al Jazeera that Ruto is running a country that has very heavily disgruntled youth”.

“Kenya has been declared a military state. And I know nobody’s talking about that enough. But the army has been given free rein,” he said, adding he would continue protesting until the president “listens to the people of Kenya”.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA AND NEWS AGENCIES

Australia commits humanitarian aid for Horn of Africa

Source: Xinuanet, Thursday June 27, 2024

Oxfam has been trucking in water to areas experiencing severe shortages. More than three million people across Somalia are facing serious levels of food insecurity, and more than 700,000 have been displaced by the crisis. Photo by Allan Gichigi/Oxfam

The Australian government has committed an additional funding for humanitarian aid in the Horn of Africa region.

Foreign Minister Penny Wong, International Development and the Pacific Minister Pat Conroy and Assistant Foreign Minister Tim Watts on Saturday announced 23 million Australian dollars (15.2 million U.S. dollars) in funding to help deliver healthcare, food and clean water amid ongoing humanitarian crises in the Horn of Africa.

It includes 13 million Australian dollars (8.6 million dollars) for vulnerable people in Sudan and Sudanese refugees who have been displaced to neighboring countries, 6 million Australian dollars (3.9 million dollars) to Ethiopia and Somalia to support people affected by crises, and 4 million Australian dollars (2.6 million dollars) to Kenya in response to flooding.

Wong, Conroy and Watts said in a joint statement that Australia is deeply concerned by the compounding effects of ongoing conflicts and climate change on vulnerable people in the region.

“Australia is gravely concerned by the deteriorating humanitarian situation in the Horn of Africa and is working with international partners to help the most vulnerable and address instability in the region,” Wong said.

The aid will be delivered by Australian and local non-government organizations, United Nations partners and the International Committee of the Red Cross.

Ethiopian high-level delegation arrives in Djibouti
Source: FanaBC, Thursday June 27, 2024

Ethiopian Delegation headed by Mr. Adem Farah, Vice President of the ruling Prosperity Party and head of the Democratic System Building Center with the rank of Deputy Prime Minister, has arrived in Djibouti.

Mr. Adem Farah was accompanied by other senior government officials, including Finance Minister, Mr. Ahmed Shide, Chief of General Staff of the Ethiopian Defense Forces, Field Marshall Berhanu Jula, and Oromia region chief administrator, Mr. Shimels Abdissa.

According to a social media post from the Ethiopian Embassy in Djibouti, the Ethiopian delegation has travelled to Djibouti to celebrate the coastal nation’s 47th Independence Day.

Independence Day, observed annually on 27 June, is a national holiday in Djibouti which marks the territory’s declaration of independence from France.

Kenya’s president withdraws tax plan after deadly protest

Source: BBC, By Barbara Plett Usher & Farouk Chothia
Thursday June 27, 2024

Kenyan President William Ruto addresses a press conference at the State House in Nairobi, June 26, 2024. © Simon Maina, AFP

Kenya’s President William Ruto says he will withdraw a finance bill containing controversial tax hikes after deadly protests which saw parliament set ablaze on Tuesday.

In an address to the nation, he said it was clear that Kenyans “want nothing” to do with the bill.
“I concede,” he said, adding that he would not sign the bill into law.

At least 22 people were killed in Tuesday’s protests, according to the state-funded Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNHRC).

Mr Ruto said he would now enter into dialogue with the young people, who were at the forefront of the biggest protests to hit the country since he was elected in 2022.

The bill was passed by parliament on Tuesday, despite nationwide demonstrations against it.

Protesters broke into parliament, vandalising the interior and setting parts of the complex on fire. The ceremonial mace, symbolising the authority of the legislature, was stolen.

Mr Ruto initially responded with defiance.

He ordered the military to be deployed, saying “violence and anarchy” would not be tolerated.

But he climbed down on Wednesday, following an extraordinary demonstration of people power.

“Ruto bows to Gen Z pressure, withdraws Finance Bill,” read the headline on Kenya’s Citizen TV.

In his second address to the nation in less than 24 hours, Mr Ruto laid out a very clear rationale for why he thought the tax increases were necessary.

The proposed legislation was part of efforts to cut the country’s massive debt burden of more than $80bn (£63bn), which costs the country more than half of its annual tax revenues to service.

Mr Ruto added that his government had made progress and was on course to “assert sovereignty” by repaying its debts.

He said the provisions would have benefitted farmers, students and teachers, but he admitted the people were not behind him.

“I also lead people,” he said, “and the people have spoken.”

It is unclear clear how his climbdown will affect plans to resume the protests, which have largely been organised via social media, on Thursday.

Chatter on social media suggested that it would still go ahead.

The stated purpose of the demonstrations was to force the president not to sign the bill.
But the protesters have begun demanding that he step down, with the slogan “Ruto must go.”

Mr Ruto rose to the presidency after defeating his main rival Raila Odinga by a narrow margin in the 2022 election.

He got 50.5% of the vote, to Mr Odinga’s 48.8%.

Mr Ruto won after portraying himself as a “hustler” who was challenging an attempt by two dynasties – the Odingas and Kenyattas – to hang on to power.

He promised a “bottom-up” approach to the economy to tackle the high unemployment rate among young people, and to improve the lives of those less well off.

Statement by Acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General James Swan to the Security Council on the situation in Somalia

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Source, Tuesday June 25, 2024 – 06:42:26 in Latest News by Horn Observer Contributor

(As delivered, New York, 24 June 2024)

Mr President, distinguished members of the Council,

Thank you for the opportunity to brief you on the situation in Somalia.

I am pleased to do so together with the Special Representative of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission for Somalia, Ambassador Souef Mohamed El-Amine. I commend the bravery, determination, and sacrifices of the Somali and African Union forces in contributing to peace and security in the country.

I congratulate Somalia on its election as a member of the Security Council for 2025-2026. This achievement demonstrates the progress Somalia has made over the past three decades in its journey from conflict to recovery.

Mr President,

The Federal Government of Somalia continues to pursue its key national priorities, including the constitutional review process, the electoral framework, and the fight against Al-Shabaab. Between February and May, Somalia’s Federal Parliament adopted constitutional amendments to the first four chapters of the 2012 Provisional Constitution, which cover, among other issues, the governance system and electoral framework, reaffirming the Government’s commitment to a one-person, one-vote electoral model.

During the last National Consultative Council meeting, convened by His Excellency President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud from 14 to 17 May, and which was attended by the Federal Member States leaders with the exception of Puntland, the leaders welcomed the amendments to the Provisional Constitution and encouraged the rapid adoption of related laws and regulations to facilitate the holding of one-person-one-vote elections. Some opposition figures and Puntland officials criticized the process and outcome, with Puntland’s President announcing the State’s withdrawal from the federal system pending negotiation of a comprehensive constitutional framework.

Parliament is scheduled to consider the important enabling legislation for universal suffrage elections as well as the next chapters of the Provisional Constitution during its summer session. The next phase of the constitutional review will address complex issues, such as power- and resource-sharing under Somalia’s federal model. Continued engagement of all stakeholders in an inclusive process will be critical to ensure broad-based consensus on these important state-building questions. I call on all Somali stakeholders to work together to resolve their differences and seek consensus.

At the regional level, I remain concerned about the Ethiopia and “Somaliland” Memorandum of Understanding announced on January 1, which has created tensions in the Horn of Africa at a time when the region faces other crises. I recall that the Security Council has repeatedly affirmed respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and unity of Somalia. I encourage Somalia and Ethiopia to resolve this matter peacefully in accordance with these principles as enshrined in the United Nations Charter and international law.

Mr. President

Security is a top priority for the Government of Somalia, which continues to undertake multi-faceted efforts to defeat Al-Shabaab. For its part, Al-Shabaab remains determined to continue terrorist attacks with little regard for the loss of civilian life. Protection of civilians must remain a key priority. I condemn these terrorist attacks and extend my condolences to the families of those killed.

While continuing efforts against Al-Shabaab, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) has also drawn down in accordance with the planned transition of responsibilities to Somali security forces. Since June 2023, five thousand ATMIS troops have left Somalia and further reductions are planned in the coming weeks. The United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) continues to provide logistical support to deployed ATMIS forces and to facilitate an orderly drawdown of departing forces.

On post-2024 security planning, the Federal Government of Somalia and the African Union continue their discussions on the follow-on security arrangements for 2025. SRCC Souef will provide further details in his briefing. Financing remains a critical challenge, and I appeal to all partners to ensure predictable and sustainable financing for the follow-on arrangements as well as the necessary resources for ATMIS, which continues to face critical funding shortfalls.

Mr President,

On Women, Peace, and Security, I note the commitments made in its revisions of the Provisional Constitution that enabling legislation should include quotas to guarantee women’s political participation and meaningful representation in decision-making. The United Nations will continue to provide technical assistance aimed at enabling a credible and transparent electoral process and to engage federal and member state governments on the importance of increasing and codifying women’s political participation.

I welcome the finalization by Parliament of the Bill of Rights, which has received Presidential endorsement as part of the ongoing constitutional review process. Important guarantees on child rights and protection against female genital mutilation are included. I further welcome Galmudug State’s enactment of the first law prohibiting all forms of female genital mutilation as a vital step towards the elimination of violence against women.

Mr. President,

The humanitarian situation in Somalia remains dire. While the number of people in need of assistance has reduced from 8.3 million in 2023 to 6.9 million in 2024, climatic events, insecurity and disease outbreaks have continued to exacerbate humanitarian needs. More than 3.8 million people are displaced. The 2024 Somalia Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan requires USD 1.6 billion, but as of June 23, it is only 24 per cent funded. I urge international partners to provide the necessary funding to ensure assistance for those most in need.

Somalia’s humanitarian and development challenges are intensified by climate shocks. To address these challenges, investments to strengthen the longer-term resilience of communities, infrastructure, and economic recovery are essential. At the current rate, the impact of climate change is outpacing our ability to support adaptation and humanitarian response. Climate change also intensifies social tensions and conflicts, particularly in rural areas where livelihoods are highly dependent on natural resources.

Mr President,

Regarding the Federal Government of Somalia’s early May letters to the Security Council requesting the transition from UNSOM to the Country Team, the United Nations is in discussions with Somali authorities, to determine the modalities and timeline for the transition. Since, I assumed my duties on 23 May, I have met the senior Somali leadership, including President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud, the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and Foreign Minister, among others, on this matter to hear how the United Nations can best support Somalia’s priorities going forward. All have indicated that they seek a collaborative process to ensure an orderly transition. As requested by Somali authorities, a Joint Federal Government of Somalia and United Nations Technical Committee led by senior officials on both sides has been established to take forward the planning process. An initial meeting of the Joint Technical Committee was held on 22 June. While still in their early stages, discussions to date have been cordial and constructive. We are working to fulfil the Security Council’s request that the Secretary-General engages with the Somali authorities to determine the modalities and timeline for the transition and provide an update by the end of August.

Mr. President,

I would like to conclude by reiterating the commitment of the United Nations to continue supporting Somalia in achieving its national priorities.

Thank you.

– UNSOM –

Foreign ambassadors ‘deeply concerned’ by violence

Source. Aljazeera, A group of foreign ambassadors and high commissioners in Kenya has stressed that Kenya’s constitution “guarantees the right to peaceful protest” and all actors must uphold the rule of law.

“We are deeply concerned by the violence witnessed in many parts of the country during the recent protests, and are especially shocked by the scenes witnessed outside the Kenyan Parliament,” they wrote in a statement shared by the British High Commission.

It was signed by representatives from Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, and the United States, among others.

“We welcome civil engagement by all Kenyans, in particular the youth, in addressing issues of vital public concern,” the statement reads. “We call for restraint on all sides, and encourage all leaders to find peaceful solutions through constructive dialogue.”

Kenya finance bill protests live: Demonstrators killed outside parliament

Video Duration 00 minutes 57 seconds00:57

Source> Aljazeera, By Nils Adler and Jillian Kestler-D’Amours

Published On 25 Jun 202425 Jun 2024

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• Hundreds of anti-tax protesters have entered Kenya’s Parliament and part of the building is on fire.
• A coalition of human rights organisations, including Amnesty International and the Kenya Medical Association, have said that five people have been shot dead after police fired at protesters.

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