Horn of Africa conflicts exacerbated by regional and great power competition
Source: Ambassador David H. Shinn
Non-resident Scholar
The Horn of Africa experienced a difficult 2021 and promises to endure an equally if not more challenging 2022. The civil war in Ethiopia currently involves less geography than it did a few months ago but is far from reaching a solution. Street protests continue in Sudan as the political crisis between the generals and civilian protesters worsens. Al-Shabaab remains a serious threat in Somalia as controversial parliamentary elections are again rescheduled. South Sudan faces one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises, which shows signs of worsening.
All these conflicts could be ameliorated if there were agreement on solutions by the key international and regional actors. Unfortunately, this is not the case for any of the crises. Western countries, on the one hand, and China, Russia, and India, on the other, have different approaches to Ethiopia and Sudan. Key regional actors — Egypt, Turkey, Iran, and several of the Gulf states — are pursuing different policies on all of them. Eritrea has an outsized role in Ethiopia. Even Israel is something of a wild card in Sudan.
Ethiopia poses the biggest challenge for the United States. Neither the central government nor the rebel Tigrayan forces have demonstrated a willingness to end the military confrontation. The United States and the European Union will continue to push for a cease-fire and dialogue between the central government and Tigrayans. They will also urge unfettered humanitarian access to Tigray and an end to air strikes on civilian targets, and they are prepared to increase sanctions against all parties to the conflict. China, Russia, and India will continue to oppose sanctions and all three countries are more willing to accept the central government’s interpretation of events. Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE will continue to support the central government. Continuing conflict in Ethiopia offers an opening for Egypt to improve its bargaining position concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and may even result in support for the Tigrayan rebels. Eritrea, which sent troops into Tigray in support of the central government early in the conflict, will now pursue a low profile.
As differences increase between Sudan’s generals and civilian protesters, there is no prospect of ending the conflict. The military’s promise of elections in 2023 has fallen on deaf ears because it is not credible. In addition, the national military’s approach to the crisis is different than that of the allied Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The United States, which has had no ambassador in Khartoum since 1997, and its Western allies will continue to support the goals of the civilian protesters while China, Russia, and Egypt are aligned with the national military. The UAE and Saudi Arabia will remain close to both the national military and the RSF, which provided them troops in the Yemen conflict. Israel will continue to do what is required to ensure recognition by Sudan. The domestic political crisis will weaken Khartoum’s hand in countering Ethiopia on the GERD dispute.
Somalia’s prime minister has yet again rescheduled elections in the Lower House of Parliament, to be held by February 25, that will permit the selection of a new president. The fear is there will be another postponement, more tension between the prime minister and president, additional political instability in Somalia, greater opportunity for al-Shabaab to take advantage, and new reasons for several of the regional actors to interfere in Somali politics.
A third of South Sudan’s population is internally displaced and the 2018 peace agreement could be undermined by stalled implementation, risking a return to large-scale violence. The United States is the largest humanitarian donor, but its policy continues to be hindered by the lack of an ambassador. The major concern is that South Sudan will not receive adequate international attention because of a preoccupation with other crises in the Horn.