Explanation of Recent Severe Flooding in Southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and Somalia

Explanation of Recent Severe Flooding in Southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and Somalia

 World Weather Attribution posted on 7 December 2023 an academic study by various specialists titled “Compounding Natural Hazards and High Vulnerability Led to Severe Impacts from Horn of Africa Flooding Exacerbated by Climate Change and Indian Ocean Dipole.”

After years of drought, the short rainy season (October to December) in the Horn of Africa brought exceptionally heavy rains, particularly in November, leading to severe flooding in the south of Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and many regions in southern and central Somalia.  In Somalia alone, more than 100 Somalis lost their lives and more than one million have been displaced.  

Climate change and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) contributed approximately equally to the flooding event.  The IOD is a natural phenomenon that oscillates between neutral, positive, and negative phases while human-induced climate change will continue to increase until the burning of fossil fuels is stopped.