Al-Shabaab’s Ramadan offensive in Somalia exposes critical security gaps
Source: Hiiraan Online, Friday March 21, 2025
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud greets military commanders during a visit to frontline troops in central Somalia amid ongoing operations against Al-Shabaab militants. (Photo courtesy of Somali Presidential Press Office)Mogadishu (HOL) — Al-Shabaab’s large-scale offensive, initiated in February with more than 3,000 militants mobilized from Middle Jubba to retake the strategic Middle Shabelle region, has stumbled but continues to expose critical weaknesses in Somalia’s security framework.
Despite significant setbacks faced by the militant group, including fierce resistance from Somali and partner forces, Al-Shabaab’s continued resilience and capacity for coordinated, deadly attacks have cast a troubling shadow over Mogadishu’s fragile security gains.
In the boldest attack to date, militants targeted Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s convoy with a powerful improvised explosive device near Mogadishu airport on March 18. Mohamud survived unharmed, but the blast killed four people, highlighting the militants’ audacity and ability to strike high-level targets.
Days prior, Al-Shabaab conducted coordinated assaults on Somali military positions in Awdhiigle and Hawo Abdi, locations dangerously close to Mogadishu’s administrative boundaries. Although the Somali government reported successfully repelling these attacks, Al-Shabaab claimed to have inflicted heavy casualties, reportedly killing at least 30 Somali soldiers. Alarmingly, militants openly occupied and patrolled neighbourhoods on Mogadishu’s outskirts overnight on March 15 and 16, showcasing serious gaps in local security.
Central to Al-Shabaab’s strategic objectives is recapturing vital economic corridors, particularly the critical highway linking Mogadishu to Ethiopia through Middle Shabelle and Hiraan. This route, previously cleared during Somalia’s successful 2022 anti-insurgency offensive, serves as a significant economic lifeline. Control of the road allows lucrative taxation opportunities for Al-Shabaab and local entities, underscoring why the insurgents are fiercely contesting this area.
Further complicating the situation, local clan tensions and the political isolation of President Mohamud have provided fertile ground for Al-Shabaab to strengthen its foothold. Recent disputes between the Hawiye clans in Middle Shabelle over resource sharing and political representation have intensified rivalries. During Ramadan, these divisions have become particularly pronounced, creating vulnerabilities the militants have strategically exploited.
In a notable assault on March 11, militants targeted prominent local elders in a sophisticated hotel siege in Beledweyne, marking their most significant attack in the Hiraan capital since 2022. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab militants briefly overran the Bal’ad district, releasing imprisoned fighters, highlighting their ability to infiltrate and retake previously cleared zones like the ‘Adale district, signalling a concerted strategy to reconnect their fragmented strongholds.
The Somali government and its international partners have increased drone strikes in response, more than doubling their rate compared to the entirety of 2024. Yet, these measures have not significantly reduced Al-Shabaab’s operational capability. Recent propaganda by the militant group, explicitly calling its followers to prepare for a “new stage of war,” indicates a potentially more aggressive phase of conflict.
President Mohamud has actively sought to bolster local resistance, travelling personally to strategic locations like Adan Yabal, a town of critical strategic importance due to its former role as Al-Shabaab’s administrative headquarters in central Somalia and its position controlling vital supply routes. Once, Al-Shabaab’s central administrative town rallied clan militia support. Nevertheless, Somalia’s regional security partners, including Ethiopia, Uganda, Egypt, and the United States, have not significantly escalated their troop presence, indicating either uncertainty or possible underestimation of the immediacy of the Al-Shabaab threat.