Somalia takes deputy executive secretary position at IGAD

Source: Hiiraan Online, Sunday December 10, 2023

Mogadishu (HOL) – Former President of Hirshabelle regional state of Somalia, Mohamed Abdi Waare, has been appointed as the Deputy Executive Secretary of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

The Heads of State appointed him to the post during the extraordinary summit held in June.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Djibouti, Mohamud Ali Yusuf, who serves as the chairman of the Council of Ministers of IGAD, submitted the nomination letter to the Executive Secretary of IGAD, Dr. Workene Gebeyehu.

Mr. Waare expressed his gratitude to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud for nominating him for the position. He also extended his thanks to the leaders of the IGAD countries who approved his new role, emphasizing the strong support from the Djibouti government for his bid.

Former Somali President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed congratulated Mr. Waare on his appointment, stating, “We hope that he will represent our country in IGAD in the best way, understanding the importance of being part of the senior leadership of this regional bloc.”

Somalia has campaigned for this position for a significant period, and securing the top position will enhance the country’s influence in the region

3000 ATMIS troops to withdraw during second phase of drawdown

Saturday December 2, 2023

Top officials from ATMIS,UNSOS and the Federal Government of Somalia in a meeting shortly before addressing a joint media briefing at the Villa Somalia in Mogadishu on 30 November, 2023. ATMIS Photo/Moses Odanga 

Mogadishu (HOL) – The second phase of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) troop withdrawal, initially delayed, will resume in December, as announced by the ATMIS, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), and the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS). This phase involves the withdrawal of 3,000 troops and the transfer of control of eight Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) by the end of December 2023, in line with U.N. Security Council Resolution 2710 (2023).

The announcement was made during a joint media briefing at Villa Somalia in Mogadishu, with key speakers including ATMIS Head Amb. Mohamed El-Amine Souef, Somalia’s National Security Advisor Hussein Sheikh Ali, and UNSOS Head, Assistant Secretary-General Dr. Aisa Kacyira Kirabo. They highlighted the resumption as a result of collaborative efforts and adherence to the directives of the African Union and the U.N. Security Council.

Somalia’s National Security Advisor confirmed the Somali Security Forces (SSF) readiness to assume control of the eight FOBs and emphasized the government’s commitment to the security transition process, aiming for full responsibility by December 2024. He called for public support in this critical phase.

The briefing also included ATMIS Force Commander Lt. Gen. Sam Okiding, Somalia’s Deputy Chief of Defence Forces Brig. Gen. Madey Nurey Sheikh, and other senior officials. It follows the successful completion of the first phase of the drawdown in June, which involved the withdrawal of 2,000 troops and the handover of seven FOBs to SSF, as per U.N. Security Council Resolutions 2687 and 2670. 

UN Security Council lifts 1992 arms embargo on Somalia, paving way for military strengthening

Saturday December 2, 2023

Mogadishu (HOL) — In a historic move, the United Nations Security Council unanimously agreed on Friday to lift the decades-long arms embargo on Somalia’s government. This significant shift in international policy comes after 30 years since the imposition of the embargo in 1992, intended to stem weapon flow to warring factions after the fall of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre.

Reacting to this pivotal change, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud warmly embraced the U.N. Security Council’s resolution. “After thirty years, Somalia regains complete autonomy in armament decisions,” he stated. The president emphasized the government’s commitment to responsibly manage the influx of arms, assuring a stringent oversight system. “This marks a recognition of Somalia’s responsible governance,” he added.

advertisementsSomalia’s U.N. Ambassador Abukar Dahir Osman welcomed the decision, stating, “The lifting of the arms embargo enables us to confront security threats. It also allows us to bolster the capacity of the Somali security forces by accessing lethal arms and equipment to adequately safeguard our citizens and our nation.” 

The Council adopted two British-drafted resolutions: one lifting the embargo on Somalia and the other reinstating it specifically against the al-Qaida-linked al-Shabab militants. This resolution, significant in its clarity, explicitly states, “There is no arms embargo on the Government of the Federal Republic of Somalia,” signalling a pivotal moment for the Somali government in its efforts to combat al-Shabab insurgents, who have waged a brutal insurgency since 2006 based on their strict interpretation of Islamic Sharia law.

The Security Council’s move reflects recognition of Somalia’s strides in security management, aligning with the Somalia Transition Plan and national security framework. The lifting of the arms embargo is poised to significantly impact the military balance in Somalia. The Somali government, long advocating for this move, views it as a critical step towards bolstering its forces against insurgent threats, particularly from Al-Shabaab. 

The resolution’s adoption is a significant opportunity for Somalia, especially as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) gears up for its planned withdrawal by December 2024. Ambassador Osman reported, “Phase two drawdown of 3,000 ATMIS troops will conclude as scheduled on December 31st,” adding that the Somali government is committed to fully implementing the transitioning of security responsibility to the Somali National Army.

This decision occurs against the backdrop of existing challenges in weapons and ammunition management in Somalia, as highlighted in the Secretary-General’s prior evaluations. The resolution addresses concerns about the scarcity of secure ammunition storage in Somalia, urging the international community to aid in establishing and renovating such facilities. The report acknowledges progress in weapon registration but also points to hurdles in broadening these efforts and curbing the illicit arms trade.

International response to the lifting of the embargo has been mixed, reflecting diverse geopolitical interests and concerns. Anna M. Evstigneeva of the Russian Federation voiced skepticism about the efficacy of temporary sanctions in African States and called for a review. She argued that these sanctions hinder the progress of national law enforcement and security. Her delegation’s recommendations, including the impact of unilateral sanctions on underdeveloped nations and the wording about automatic exceptions for private security companies, were ignored. The resolution indicates that Somalia must issue licenses, but the Council lacks a list of these firms. “We expect that Mogadishu will approach this responsibly and will not allow growing militarization,” she added.

Dai Bing of China expressed confidence in Somalia’s ability to strengthen security capacity-building. However, he also pointed out that the resolution still imposes specific restrictive measures and grants special exemptions to some Western countries, highlighting concerns of a double standard.

Lana Zaki Nusseibeh of the United Arab Emirates emphasized the importance of the resolution in supporting Somalia’s ongoing efforts to consolidate peace, calling on the international community to create conditions for economic recovery and growth in the country

Sudan Is a Humanitarian Nightmare

Source:  ABC News published on 25 October 2023 an article titled “Sudan Now One of the ‘Worst Humanitarian Nightmares in Recent History’” by Emma Ogao.  

UN Humanitarian and Emergency Relief head Martin Griffiths recently said that 6 months of war in Sudan between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has plunged the country into “one of the worst humanitarian nightmares in recent history.”

South Sudan Asks China to Increase Oil Production

 Source: The Sudan Tribune published on 24 October 2023 an article titled “South Sudan Asks China CNPC to Boost Oil Production.”

Oil production accounts for 90 percent of South Sudan’s revenue.  The government has asked the China National Petroleum Corporation to increase crude oil from two of its biggest fields, backtracking from an earlier plan to take over the company’s role by 2027.

Sudan cease-fire talks to resume Thursday in Saudi Arabia

Nike Ching
Source: VOA, Thursday October 26, 2023

STATE DEPARTMENT — Talks between Sudan’s warring factions will resume Thursday in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, with a focus on securing access for humanitarian aid to reach beleaguered civilians, according to senior U.S. State Department officials.

The United States and Saudi Arabia have brokered multiple cease-fires between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) at talks in Jeddah since May, but fighting has continued in Khartoum and elsewhere, with each side accusing the other of cease-fire violations.
The U.S. adjourned the talks on June 21.

“The new round will focus on ensuring unhindered humanitarian access, achieving cease-fires, and other confidence-building measures to create conditions for the safe delivery of humanitarian assistance,” a senior official said.

The official emphasized that Thursday’s talks will not tackle political matters, as both belligerents have been clearly informed that “there is no acceptable military solution to this conflict.”

The SAF and RSF have been fighting each other since April 15, triggering a humanitarian crisis in Sudan and in neighboring countries.

Senior U.S. officials have stated that both sides, by choosing to pursue conflicts that involve indiscriminate artillery and drone strikes causing civilian casualties, have demonstrated their unsuitability for governance in post-conflict Sudan.

Sudan’s neighbors in the Horn of Africa are playing a role in the latest negotiations as the regional bloc IGAD, or Intergovernmental Authority on Development, will facilitate the resumed talks.

IGAD Executive Secretary Workneh Gebeyehu, a former foreign minister of Ethiopia, will take part in the talks for the African Union.

“We’ve been in constant communication with our colleagues from IGAD, as well as the African Union. They are in agreement that relaunching Jeddah is essential,” another senior State Department official told reporters in a phone briefing.

IGAD is one of the regional economic communities recognized by the African Union. It has eight members: Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda.

Sudanese civilians need access to the essentials of life, which include food, shelter, medicine and security, says Alex Rondos, senior adviser for United States Institute of Peace’s Africa Center.

“The toughest and boldest decision for Sudan is whether an external force will be needed to protect supply routes, logistics centers and critical infrastructure,” Rondos wrote in a recent Peace Institute publication.

Sudan has become the largest internal displacement crisis in the world. An estimated 5.6 million people have been displaced within and outside Sudan after more than six months of fighting, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Marking UN day, top officials reaffirm commitment to Somalia’s state- and peacebuilding efforts

Source: UNSOM, Thursday October 26, 2023

Mogadishu – Marking the recent United Nations Day, the world body’s top officials in Somalia today reaffirmed its support for the Somali government and people as the country continues with its state- and peacebuilding efforts.

“As you will all be aware, there are many, many challenges in the world at the moment… [including] numerous challenges on the continent of Africa and some of the challenges we face in Somalia – but the United Nations stands there ready to support in all these challenges,” said the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Somalia, Catriona Laing.

“We have been here in Somalia pre-independence. We have been here through some of the very tough times that Somalia has faced,” added Ms. Laing, who also heads the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM).

The UN Special Representative was speaking at a news conference in the Somali capital, Mogadishu.

She was accompanied by the Secretary-General’s Deputy Special Representatives for Somalia, Anita Kiki Gbeho and George Conway, with the latter also serving as the UN Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator, and the Head of the UN Support Office for Somalia (UNSOS), Aisa Kacyira.

Celebrated annually on 24 October, UN Day marks the anniversary of the entry into force in 1945 of the UN Charter. With the ratification of this founding document by the majority of its signatories, the United Nations officially came into being.

“It is an important anniversary, and it is an occasion to recommit with hope and determination to build a better world for all of our aspirations,” said Ms. Laing, who recently returned from UN Headquarters in New York City, where she had briefed the Security Council at its latest meeting on the situation in Somalia.

In her remarks to the media in Mogadishu, she highlighted various developments that are currently among the top areas of focus for the United Nations in Somalia.

Political

On the political front, the UN Special Representative flagged issues surrounding the National Consultative Council (NCC), which brings together the leaders of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and its Federal Member States (FMSs).

In May this year, the NCC had set out four specific proposals for a future electoral system with moves to: a presidential system, a two-party system, a ‘one person, one vote’ electoral model throughout the country, and dates for local council elections and alignment of FMS terms of office. The proposals continue to dominate political debate.

“We are at quite a crucial moment where we need to agree collectively, under the leadership of the Government, [on] the way forward on elections, the kind of models that Somalia will pursue, the timeline, the sequencing of elections, and of course, very importantly, to try and bring Puntland back into this process because it will be very hard to complete not just elections, but the whole legislative framework and the process around developing a constitution for Somalia,” Ms. Laing said.

She stressed the importance of Somalia’s Constitutional Review Process continuing.

“Without a constitution, a country will find it very hard to move forward. A constitution [is] essentially the ‘rules of the game’ which govern how a country is legislated, is governed. And Somalia really needs that constitution to be nailed down; as you know, it is still working on a draft constitution,” the UN Special Representative said.

The conflict in Laascaanood also figured in the top UN official’s remarks. She noted that the situation remains difficult and tense, despite the situation on the ground being relatively calm and displaced people starting to return home.

“The underlying drivers of this conflict, which resulted in a number of people killed and a number of prisoners taken, need still to be resolved,” Ms. Laing said, while flagging that the United Nations has been engaging with all parties involved in the conflict.

“The three messages are, number one, please make progress on the detainee exchange as a confidence-building measure. Secondly, it’s important for everyone to commit to no more violence, and thirdly, of course, to find a peaceful solution to the disputed territory,” she added.

Security

Addressing developments on Somalia’s security front, the UN Special Representative noted that the FGS recently requested a three-month technical pause to the latest stage of the drawdown of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), while it engages in a major military effort against the Al-Shabaab terrorist group.

“This is in recognition that the Government was facing challenges conducting the counter-offensive while also generating enough troops to take over the Forward Operating Bases that are held by ATMIS. This time is being used wisely to do some reconfiguration, some resetting, and to replan the military strategies,” Ms. Laing said.

According to Somalia’s security plans, ATMIS will be drawing down its troops over the next 14 months before completely departing at the end of 2024, with the Somali Security Forces (SSF) assuming prime responsibility in this area. A high-level conference on Somalia’s post-2024 security architecture and its needs is scheduled to take place at UN Headquarters in December this year.

While on security matters, the UN Special Representative spoke about the importance of what happens in areas where the SSF drives Al-Shabaab terrorist out.

“It’s important to note that reclaiming areas from Al-Shabaab is, of course, only step one, although a very important step. Those areas need to be stabilised, and people need to see the benefits of the Government returning to provide services for the people to enable their livelihoods to progress, to ensure justice is delivered – and that work is called stabilisation. The United Nations is providing the coordinating forum around stabilisation. It is very important to consolidate those security gains,” she said.

In her remarks to the media, Assistant Secretary-General Kacyira said UNSOS expects to continue its wide-ranging, steadfast support to ATMIS and the SSF throughout the remainder of ATMIS’ time in Somalia, and with a focus on leaving the SSF well-prepared for its responsibilities.

“It is of key importance that they are trained and equipped accordingly – through the UNSOS-administered Trust Fund in support of the SSF, we do our very best in implementing priorities set by the Somali Government in this regard. We are, for example, training Somali Security Forces in the spheres of aviation operations, aviation security and medical, evacuations and management of other logistics-related fields,” she said.

UNSOS’s logistics support throughout the security transition includes the handover of ATMIS’ Forward Operating Bases to the SSF, along with equipment at these locations. The latter includes water points, generators and water treatment plants.

“All this is done in the spirit of building capacity and sustaining operations and supporting security,” the Assistant Secretary-General added. “As we go through this transition, I would like to take this opportunity to say that UNSOS remains committed to carrying out its role as a strategic enabler for its clients, for the ultimate benefit of Somalia.”

Women

When speaking about the UN’s support for increasing Somali women’s participation in society, including in peacebuilding and decision-making processes, the UN Special Representative emphasised that women play a very important role in security, and there can be no lasting peace unless women are involved in resolving underlying tensions and drivers of conflict.

“I’ve heard directly myself from many of the female leaders here in Somalia – brave women who stand up for women’s rights, who are doing pioneering work – and they urged me strongly and my team to continue to advocate with the Government, with Parliament and so on, on the importance of women having their rightful place at all the top tables, including crucially in politics, because women need to see other women in strong political leadership roles,” Ms. Laing said. “Let’s all commit to work together to continue on ensuring that women have their rightful seat at the table.”

The top UN official also drove home the importance of achieving the target of a quota of at least 30 per cent for women’s representation in parliament “to break this cycle, to get enough women at the table, for women to represent the views and rights of other women.”

At Somalia’s last federal electoral process in 2022, the target of the 30 per cent quota was not achieved. The final percentage of parliamentary seats held by women was just 21 per cent, down from 24 per cent in the previous electoral cycle in 2016.

Human rights

On the issue of human rights in Somalia, the UN Special Representative welcomed recent legislative achievements, such as the Federal Government’s approval of a Disability Rights Bill, a Child Rights Bill and a Juvenile Justice Bill.

“A very important issue in Somalia is the age of a child. We now have for the first time an age verification policy, which is the first formal procedure for age assessment in the country to confirm that a child is actually under 18. The UN has provided technical support to all these bills,” Ms. Laing said.

“But there is more to be done,” she continued. “So, on the age of a child, for example, the next step is to harmonise all the legislation and policy around embedding formally that a child is under 18, and that affects things like child marriage, the age at which a child can legitimately join the military, and so on. So that is a really important next step.”

In her remarks to the media, in relation to the Disability Rights Bill, Deputy Special Representative Gbeho highlighted the UN’s support for the National Disability Agency over the last two years – including support for its first-ever disability needs and perceptions survey.

“We supported them to undertake a perception survey, so they can understand the issues that people with disabilities face in Somalia,” she said. “When I was in school, I had a professor and he used to tell us: ‘If you cannot measure it, you cannot manage it.’ If we do not understand the challenges that people with disabilities face, there will be no way we can support the Government to resolve these issues.”

In August 2019, following extensive consultations and advocacy, the FGS ratified the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. This momentum resulted in the fast-tracking of a national mechanism, with the inauguration of the National Disability Agency (NDA) in 2021. Subsequently, the NDA led and consulted on the drafting of the Disability Rights Bill which was promulgated in July 2023.

Despite its recent creation, the National Disability Agency is a fully functioning institution and UNSOM has been its main partner supporting its capacity building, facilitation of donor funding and technical assistance.

Within human rights, on the topic of freedom of expression, UN Special Representative Laing noted its importance to the world body.

“This is an area we keep a very close watch on. We’ve done three reports on ensuring that the Government adheres to its obligations to ensure that all of you as journalists can do your jobs freely and report so that people understand what is going on and without any intimidation,” Ms. Laing said.

The right to freedom of expression is a fundamental human right, enshrined in Article 19 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and it is widely considered to be essential to any functioning democracy.

Economic development

On economic development, the UN Special Representative welcomed Somalia’s progress within the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank’s Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative.

“I am pleased to say that the final piece of the jigsaw was met recently, and Somalia should be moving to the completion point in December. This will enable Somalia to access much larger soft loans and grants, and that will be important for Somalia’s economic development,” Ms. Laing said.

“So, investment, for example, in your coastline, your very important coastline, which will enable you to drive forward from an economic perspective,” she added.

The IMF and World Bank launched HIPC Initiative in 1996 to ensure that no poor country faces an unmanageable debt burden.

In 2005, to accelerate progress toward the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, the HIPC Initiative was supplemented by the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative. This allows countries completing the HIPC Initiative process to receive 100 per cent relief on eligible debts by the IMF, the World Bank and the African Development Fund.

Rule of law

In her remarks to the media, Deputy Special Representative Gbeho also elaborated on the UN’s support for Somalia’s rule of law, justice and corrections, which includes supporting the strengthening of police and community policing throughout the country.

“We have also worked very closely with Government, with civil society, with our sister UN agencies on the Joint Justice and Corrections Programme. This has so far supported the provision of legal services to close to 18,000 beneficiaries in Somalia – the majority of these beneficiaries have been women,” Ms. Gbeho said.

“We have also supported the establishment of 16 alternative dispute resolution centres throughout this country and 13,000 cases have been resolved as a result,” she added.

Humanitarian concerns

Somalia’s dire humanitarian situation figured prominently in the news conference.

The Horn of Africa country has been experiencing a long and severe drought – its worst in 40 years – which has also involved significant risks of famine. At the height of the humanitarian response over the past two years, more than 6.3 million Somalis were receiving some form of UN assistance. This support included assistance with food, hygiene, water, sanitation and more.

“It was an important part of preventing the country from falling over the brink from a protracted drought into famine conditions,” said UN Deputy Special Representative Conway.

In 2022 and early 2023, the UN and its partners engaged in a robust humanitarian response, which helped. However, while recent rains have ameliorated the situation and food insecurity across the country has improved, challenges remain.

Currently, there are millions of people who are still food insecure and in need of assistance. The situation is projected to deteriorate further until December, mainly due to the enhanced Deyr rains exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon.

El Niño is expected to cause flash and riverine floods in large parts of the country.

“We estimate right now about four million Somalis are living at different levels of food security crisis. And that is a lot. That is a very high number. And 3.8 million Somalis are internally displaced across the country. That number itself increased by a million people over the course of the protracted drought,” said Deputy Special Representative Conway.

“So right now, today in addition to the baseline of humanitarian need in the country, we are very concerned about the impact of El Niño on the Deyr rainy season,” he continued. “We have already in the past two weeks seen flash flooding happening in a number of cities throughout the country. We have seen river levels rising… The estimates that we have right now are that the rains are likely to be the worst that we’ve seen in at least 20 years, with the most recent worst rains in 1997.”

According to estimates from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), around 1.2 million Somalis could be impacted by flooding over the course of the next three months, with 1.6 million hectares of land also inundated as a result. Somalis in camps for internally displaced people, and the host communities for those camps, are expected to be disproportionately affected.

Mr. Conway noted that UN humanitarian agencies have been working with the FGS, in particular its Somalia Disaster Management Agency, and also with FMS-level humanitarian affairs ministries on preparedness measures to try to reduce the impact on Somalis.

“We’ve done a lot of work to help government, local governments and state governments identify evacuation areas, in high ground areas, provided maps and provided data. We are doing monitoring of river levels in support of the Government in order to give early warning notice to communities so that they can be informed if they have to move,” Mr. Conway said.

“And we are providing packages of early response support to those communities that are directly impacted in the areas of food or cash or hygiene or water or sanitation or the other areas that that we are focused on,” he added. “It’s important to note that we have allocated significant resources to this response. Right now, we have $50 million allocated immediately towards the rapid response.”

However, the UN’s humanitarian support faces hurdles.

Somalia’s 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan, seeks more than $2.6 billion to meet the priority needs of 7.6 million people. Currently, the plan has received less than half of the sought-after amount, and partners are having to prioritise the most vulnerable in areas with the greatest severity of needs.

“It sits at about 39 per cent funded, as of today. And that is compromising our ability to scale up the response as much as we would have preferred and we are appealing to donors to come in with their generous support to enable us to ensure that we’re responding to the needs as they are likely to manifest over the course of the next months,” Mr. Conway said.

Development

Away from humanitarian issues, the Deputy Special Representative also addressed Somalia’s broader development, including the need to find long-term solutions to recurrent crises caused by climate shocks, such as flooding and drought.

“These are cyclical in Somalia, and the cycles are getting shorter and shorter and the impact is getting higher and higher. And what that necessitates from the Somali authorities, supported by the international community, including the United Nations, is to invest in solutions to reduce the risks for the future, to reduce humanitarian needs for the future through targeting the types of development deficits that have been a structural challenge for the country over recent decades,” Mr. Conway said.

“There’s been far more money spent on humanitarian response than on investment in development in the past two decades,” he added, while also welcoming progress on the HIPC Initiative.

Mr. Conway noted that completing the HIPC Initiative process will enable an expansion of the development agenda in Somalia – one that addresses the underlying drivers of cyclical crises and risks and builds greater resilience of Somali citizens and Somali institutions to be able to better manage these crises in the future.

“We are seeking to rebalance our engagements from principally humanitarian to much more developmental engagements to reduce, again, risk for the future. We do have a development cooperation framework that we’re supporting the Government across multiple areas. Much of the work that we do is directly joined with the Mission structures in support of the state-building agenda, justice, the rule of law and others,” the Deputy Special Representative said.

“We’re making increased investments into climate adaptation, into environmental management, into certainly the stabilisation agenda and expanding basic service delivery systems into newly-accessible areas where people have not had access to recurrent service delivery, some for a very long time – over a decade,” he added. “And we have opened a new funding window called the Somalia Joint Fund, which has now become operational.”

UN Day

The aim of UN Day is to amplify humanity’s common agenda and reaffirm the purposes and principles of the UN Charter that have guided the organisation for the past 78 years.

Ethiopia PM Abiy seeks to quell neighbours’ concerns over invasion

Source: Reuters, By Dawit Endeshaw and Giulia Paravicini
Friday October 27, 2023

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Thursday he would not invade any nation, in comments aimed at quelling neighbouring countries’ concerns that he might use force to secure access to a sea port.

Abiy told state media on Oct. 13 that Ethiopia should assert what he called the landlocked nation’s right to access the Red Sea as much as possible through peaceful means, raising tensions with regional governments and the spectre of a fresh conflict in the Horn of Africa.

Coastal Eritrea, which secured independence from Ethiopia in 1993 following a lengthy civil war, described recent commentary over the Red Sea as “excessive” and urged concerned parties not be provoked, without directly addressing Abiy’s comments.

Both countries subsequently moved troops closer to their shared border, according to diplomats and humanitarians with knowledge of the movements, raising concerns of another conflict in a region already plagued by violence.

“Ethiopia has never invaded any country and now Ethiopia has no intention to invade any country,” Abiy told thousands of soldiers gathered in the capital Addis Ababa to celebrate the national army on Thursday.

Abiy said Ethiopia would not pursue its interests “through force”, and that “it wouldn’t pull the trigger on its fellow brothers.”

In the days following the exchange Eritrea deployed troops in the town of Bure, along the border with Ethiopia’s Afar region, while Ethiopia moved troops towards that same border, two diplomats and one humanitarian said.

Abiy won a Nobel peace prize in 2019 for his peacemaking efforts which ended two decades of hostility with Eritrea.

Eritrea then fought alongside Ethiopia in the war against regional forces from Tigray, but relations soured once again after Asmara was excluded from the peace talks that ended that conflict in November, and because some of its troops remain in Tigray.

“It’s an open secret that relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have grown ever frostier over the past year,” said Alan Boswell, project director, Horn of Africa, at the International Crisis Group.

“There are major concerns around the region that the relationship could deteriorate further and risk outright hostility.”

In response to Abiy’s latest comments, a senior official from Djibouti, which hosts naval bases for several nations including the United States and China, said his country was sovereign.

“Our territorial integrity cannot be disputed today, or tomorrow,” said Alexis Mohamed, a senior adviser to Djibouti’s president.

Somalia’s government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Reporting by Dawit Endeshaw and Giulia Paravicini, writing by Giulia Paravicini; Editing by Hereward Holland and Christina Fincher

As Italy turns again to Africa, ‘good coloniser’ myth persists

Source: AFP, Sunday October 29, 2023

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government is hoping for African partners to help with energy security © Wojtek Radwanski / AFP

Rome (AFP) – Italy’s government is eyeing Africa in pursuit of energy security, even as some officials defend Rome’s often-bloody colonial past on the continent — giving short shrift to historical accuracy.

Historians agree that hundreds of thousands of civilians were killed under Italian colonial rule in Libya, Ethiopia, Eritrea and what is now Somalia from the late 19th century to the first half of the 20th.

Yet Italy’s deputy foreign minister, Edmondo Cirielli, said in June that the country’s presence on the continent was “civilising”, without bloodshed or repression.

“Whether before or during Fascism… (Italy) in Africa built and created a civilising culture” in its colonies, said Cirielli, a member of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s post-Fascist Brothers of Italy party, borrowing the “good colonisers” myth popular on the far right.

“Our ancient and thousand-year-old culture does not make us a people of pirates who go around plundering the world,” Cirielli said, in comments that raised eyebrows among historians and the left-wing opposition.

Unlike Germany reconciling with its Nazi past or France with its occupation of Algeria, Italy has been slow to embark on public soul-searching about its colonial history.

But opposition lawmakers have now drafted a bill to establish a “Day of Remembrance for the victims of Italian colonialism” in the four African countries.

The suggested date is February 19, which marks the start of a massacre of Ethiopian civilians by Italian troops in Addis Ababa in 1937.

“Other countries such as Belgium and Germany have apologised for the crimes of colonialism,” said Laura Boldrini, an MP for the centre-left Democratic Party who co-authored the bill.

“In Italy, we tend to deny and tell ourselves that ‘Italy, good people’ built roads, hospitals and schools,” she said.

Boldrini, a former head of the lower house of parliament, said right-wing newspapers had written disparaging articles about the text, “and this government does not take colonial crimes seriously”.

The bill has little chance of being adopted given the opposition of Meloni’s coalition, which has a parliamentary majority.

– ‘History of violence’ –

Alessandro Pes, a professor of contemporary history at the University of Cagliari, said the “stereotype of the ‘good coloniser’ has no significant historical foundation”.

Rather, that rhetoric “hid a desire for colonial expansion carried out through the use of violence and the forced subordination of colonised populations”, Pes told AFP.

Italy’s eyes turned to expansion after it became a unified state in 1861, with the young nation anxious to establish a toehold in Africa in competition with other European powers.

It sought “to resolve the big problems of unemployment and social malaise in Italy” by exporting workers to newly occupied territories in the Horn of Africa, said Uoldelul Chelati Dirar, a professor of African history at the University of Macerata.

Differing from its European rivals, however, Italy developed more infrastructure like roads, bridges and railways while in Africa — something right-wing politicians are quick to point out, he said.

Those investments have fuelled the “good people” myth that is deeply rooted in Italian society, “reflected in the extreme resistance to accepting the evidence that our history has also been a history of violence, exploitation and racism”, added Pes.

British historian Ian Campbell estimates that Italy’s occupation of Libya, Ethiopia, Eritrea and then-Italian Somaliland caused 700,000 African deaths.

This includes 150,000 people killed in Libya alone during the Fascist era under Benito Mussolini, Chelati Dirar said.

Educational gap?

In 2008, Silvio Berlusconi, then prime minister, signed a deal with Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi to pay $5 billion in investments to compensate for what the premier called “damage inflicted on Libya by Italy during the colonial era”.

But little is taught in Italian schools today about this aspect of its past, prompting some historians to make a link between an educational gap and modern-day racism.

Meanwhile, Meloni has criticised Italy’s European partners and fellow colonial powers — without naming them — during speeches addressed to African nations, as she seeks new deals on energy and access to raw materials.

Earlier this month in the Republic of Congo, she called for “an approach that is not the predatory and paternalistic one that has characterised relations with certain countries in the past”.

“Securing Red Sea access vital for Ethiopia’s survival,” Abiy Ahmed

Source: Ethiopia Observer, October 15, 2023 | by Ethiopia Observer|7 

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has said that securing access to the Red Sea is vital for Ethiopia’s survival, warranting thorough and careful discussion.

The topic of Red Sea access has come under scrutiny following the Prime Minister’s briefing to members of the House of People’s Representatives in a televised session.

In 1993, following Eritrea’s independence from Ethiopia, one of Africa’s largest countries lost its direct access to the Red Sea. Since then, the country has relied on the port of Djibouti, a neighboring small country, for imports and exports.

“The Red Sea and the Nile are intimately linked to Ethiopia, serving as the pillars that could either propel the country’s progress or lead to its demise,” Abiy said.

While the Prime Minister’s speech is not explicitly directed towards Eritrea, many are voicing concerns that it could potentially strain the recently improved relations between the two countries.

The Eritrean government has not issued an official response to Abiy’s statement but the Eritrean ambassador to Japan, Estifanos Afeworki, wrote on Twitter saying that “There is no if and but about Eriitrea’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. No amount of illegitimate instigation, propaganda, conspiracy, and defamation can change this truth.”

The Prime Minister emphasized Ethiopia’s crucial position as a major water source for neighboring countries, citing rivers originating in the country that flow into various neighboring territories. He also mentioned that a pipeline linking Djibouti and Ethiopia had been constructed at Ethiopia’s expense, adding that none of the neighboring countries provide water to Ethiopia, yet every one of them are beneficiaries.

“Declaring ‘I will take yours, but I won’t give you mine’ is not appropriate. Ethiopia, indeed, has every right to pursue access to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean,” Abiy asserted.

“When we had access to the Red Sea, we were one of the great powers,” the prime minister remarked, emphasizing that “gaining access to the sea should not come at the cost of bloodshed and conflict.”

In return, Abiy expressed his country’s interest in offering shares from the Renaissance Dam, Ethiopian Airlines, and Ethiotelecom. He stated, “When we propose sharing the benefits of the Renaissance Dam, it’s not merely an idea, we have calculated it. It yields substantial returns,” he said.

“We must address this today to prevent future generations from resorting to conflict. This can be achieved through discussions on investment options, shares, and leases. However, dismissing it entirely as a topic of conversation is a mistake,” he emphasized.

Abiy highlighted that port charges are exceedingly high for the country, noting that this amount of money could be used to build the Renaissance Dam every three years.

“We’re not insisting on Massawa or Assab specifically. What we seek is an accessible gateway. However it may materialize—be it through purchase, leasing, or any mutual arrangement—that’s our objective,” the prime minister stated.

He continued, “If we don’t find an alternative through dialogue, discussion today… It could be dangerous,” he cautioned, but he emphasized that Ethiopia’s pursuit of sea access should be conducted peacefully.

Madaxweyne Xasan Sheikh: Dalkan wuxuu u baahan yahay ra’yi lagu midoobi karo uu dalku ku yeelan karo doorashooyin mid ah

Source: Hiiraan Online, Sabti, October, 14, 2023 (HOL) – Madaxweynaha Soomaaliya, Xasan Sheikh Maxamuud ayaa difaacay heshiiska arrimaha doorashooyinka ee ay golaha wadatashigu gaareen, isagoo sheegay in heshiiskaas uu muhiim u yahay jihada cusub ee Soomaaliya ay u socoto.

Madaxweyne Xasan Sheikh Maxamuud waxa uu iska fogeeyay in heshiiskan uu yahay mid waqtiga loogu dheeraynayo qaar kamid ah madaxda dowlad goboleedyada.

Madaxweynuhu wuxuu sheegay in loo baahan yahay ra’yi lagu midoobi karo islamarkaas na uu dalku ku yeelan karo doorashooyin midaysan oo isku hal waqti dhaca, iyo sidoo kale in dalku yeesho labo xisbi oo awoodda ku tatama.

Xasan Sheikh Maxamuud waxa uu codsaday in lagu taageero sidii uu heshiiskaan ku noqon lahaa mid meel mara. Wuxuu sheegay haddii uusan dalka ka gudbin marxaladda uu hadda ku sugan yahay, in madaxda joogta iyo kuwa imaanaya in aysan heli doonin waqti ay dalka wax ugu qabtaan.

“Dowlad waqtigii loo cayimay haysan karta, waan soo weynay. Lixdankii illaa iyo hadda waan la’anahay. Muxuu yahay caqliga cusub ee nagusoo saa’idaya… Xaqiiqdu waxay tahay waan is aamini la’nahay,” ayuu yiri madaxweyuhu.

Heshiiska qaabaynta doorashooyinka oo horyaala baalamaanka, ayaan weli lagu guulaysan in baarlamaanku uu meel mariyo. Wuxuuna la kulmay kala aragti duwanaasho.

Sidoo kale madaxweyne Xasan Sheikh oo la kulmay siyaasiyiinta iyo madax hore, kuma guulaysan in heshiiska uu helo taageero ballaaran.

Somaliland President firmly rejects a new administration in SCC areas

Source: Hiiraan Online, Saturday October 14, 2023

Hargeisa (HOL) – Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi has firmly stated that he will not allow the formation of a new administration in the Sool, Sanaag and Ayn, collectively known as (SSC) areas, vowing Somaliland will vigorously defend its territories.

Addressing an economic forum in Hargeisa on Saturday, President Bihi underlined, “If anyone believes that it’s easy to attack Somaliland, those hostile to Somaliland will face the consequences and will not be allowed to encroach upon our land.”

He warned the Puntland administration, accusing it of seeking to acquire Somaliland’s land through tribal means. “Taking the Puntland administration as an example, which is aggressively attempting to expand our territory, we will see whether or not they can succeed in taking our land,” President Bihi asserted.

Last week, Abdikhkhadir Ahmed Aw-Ali Firdhiye, the leader of the SSC-Khatumo administration, declared that his newly formed administration would not participate in the upcoming elections for the Puntland regional state and instead advocated to become a new federal member state.

In response, President of Puntland Said Abdullahi Deni, speaking in Garowe on Friday night, expressed Puntland’s satisfaction with the interests of the SSC region’s residents. He called on Somaliland to avoid further conflict.

On Friday, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamse Abdi Barre met with SSC Khatumo leader Abdikhadir Ahmed Firdhiye at the Presidential palace in Mogadishu.

Mr. Firdhiye briefed the leaders on the newly formed administration’s efforts to restore essential services to these areas after eight months of conflict between Somaliland and SSC forces in Las Anod and the surrounding regions. He underlined the vision of the local population in these areas and highlighted the challenges they face due to the war.

Two months ago, the SCC-Khatumo forces expelled the Somaliland army from the SSC-Khatumo areas following eight months of fighting between the two sides. Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi, speaking the day after the SCC forces took control of Somaliland’s main base, Gojacade, outside Las Anod, acknowledged that his troops had suffered a significant setback during the eight months of conflict in the vicinity of Las Anod town.

The Horn of Africa: a geo-strategic priority for the EU

Source: EU, 26.05.2023 Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy / Vice-President of the European Commission

HR/VP Blog – At last Monday’s Foreign Affairs Council, we discussed the situation in the Horn of Africa. This region, which is crucial to EU’s interests, is characterized by a huge untapped potential, but it has been affected during the last decade by many crises that threaten its stability and development.

At our Council of EU Foreign Ministers, we discussed again extensively Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. However, this war is unfortunately not the only conflict that threatens to destabilise the rules-based world order. And even if the war against our neighbour Ukraine is naturally very important to us, we need to keep a close eye on the problems in the rest of the world, better understand them and continue to engage globally in helping resolve other crises.

The stability of the Horn of Africa is crucial

This is particularly true for the Horn of Africa, which has been rocked by major crises over the recent years. The stability of this region in the East of the African continent is of course crucial for the 300 million of people living there, but it is also central for EU’s interests, in particular because more than 20% of EU exports and imports pass off its coast. As geopolitical competition intensifies, other players, like the Gulf countries, China or Russia, focus increasingly on the region. A strong and structured European engagement with the countries of the Horn of Africa is imperative to preserve our interests.

23 million people across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are highly food insecure and face severe hunger and water shortages. UNHCR

Some pressing challenges warrant our urgent attention: this region concentrates a substantial proportion of the world’s most vulnerable populations with nearly five million refugees and 13 million internally displaced persons, according to the UNHCR. And as the UN agency summarises it: “The hunger crisis in the Horn of Africa is reaching unimaginable proportions as 23 million people across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are highly food insecure and face severe hunger and water shortages”. On 24 May, the UN Secretary-General, has convened a High-level Pledging Event to Support the Humanitarian Response in the Horn of Africa. Commissioner Lenarcic participated in this event and we fully support this initiative: nothing can be achieved to help strengthen the stability of the region if we are not able to first help improve rapidly the humanitarian situation on the ground. 

The critical situation in Sudan

Regarding crises in the Horn of Africa, the focus is mainly on Sudan currently. In 2019, we saw the pictures of these courageous young people overthrowing one of the most brutal dictatorships in the world. Back in February 2020, I remember very well my discussions with the students of the University of Khartoum when I visited Sudan during my first mission to Africa as HRVP. Since then, however, none of their aspirations has been fulfilled, to the contrary. After the 2021 military coup, the country was moving again slowly towards transition to civil power. However, on 15 April, two rival generals threw their soldiers into a pitched battle, putting Sudanese and foreign citizens in the middle of the crossfire. From the onset of the conflict, we rapidly mobilised our entire diplomatic apparatus and evacuated most EU citizens (over 1,700 EU nationals) in more than 30 flights in a joint multinational military evacuation.

However, the situation on the ground for the Sudanese population remain desperate. There seems to be no political will to seek a non-military solution, and some external players fuel an already explosive situation. Our short-term objective is to contribute to a sustainable ceasefire to enable civilians to find safety and allow humanitarian actors to deliver much needed assistance.

Beyond this humanitarian ceasefire, establishing a comprehensive peace framework is crucial and the African Union seems best placed to organise it. We are in close contact with African Union Chairperson Faki to support its mediation efforts and help bridge the gap between the different stakeholders.

South Sudan is severely affected

South Sudan, one of the poorest countries in the world, is heavily affected by the infighting in its neighbouring country. Combined with the lack of political leadership and the slow and incomplete implementation of the South Sudanese peace agreement, it could derail the country’s first national elections ever planned in December 2024 and the peaceful transition in February 2025.

In the neighbouring Ethiopia, last November’s signature of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) has opened a new chapter after two years of a devastating conflict in Tigray. For now, the conflicting parties have demonstrated their commitment with important progress in terms of disarmament, restoration of basic services and interim administration in Tigray and the opening of humanitarian access. However, the situation remains fragile, notably with escalating tensions in the Oromia and Amhara regions.

After a horrible war with hundreds of thousands of victims, we accompany the peace efforts in Ethiopia and intend to gradually normalise our relations.

After a horrible war with hundreds of thousands of victims, we accompany the peace efforts and intend to gradually normalise our relations. For a full normalisation, concrete action on accountability for human rights violations committed during the conflict will be paramount.

Eritrea has started to withdraw its troops from Ethiopia. However, it remains to be seen whether this country, which has just reintegrated the regional organisation IGAD, is really willing to play a more positive role in the region.

A positive momentum in Somalia

In Somalia, which I visited last September, we observe a positive momentum under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Three CSDP missions are a clear testament of the EU’s commitment to help stabilize the country: since 2008, Operation EU NAVFOR Atalanta deters piracy, combats trafficking and contributes to the arms embargo on Somalia.  EUTM (since 2010) and EUCAP Somalia (since 2013) aim at building the capacity of the Somali armed forces.

The Somali Government is determined to deliver Somali led security and is currently engaged in a number of operations against Islamist insurgent group al-Shabaab. Somalia’s positive voting record in the UN on Russia’s aggression against Ukraine demonstrates its commitment to the principles of the international rules-based order. These developments have resulted in a deepening of our partnership with a Joint Operational Roadmap launched a few weeks ago by EU Special Representative Weber to facilitate further progress in state building and security.

Kenya, a pillar of stability

Kenya continues to be a solid ally and an important pillar of stability in the Horn of Africa. During my visit to Kenya last year, I launched a strategic partnership with this country, which we intend to strengthen even further in the coming months. Peaceful elections in August 2022, observed by an EU observation mission, set a new democratic benchmark for the region and beyond. Nairobi is also a key EU ally in the fight against climate change, where the country has high ambitions. Like-minded in multilateral fora, it voted with EU in the five UNGA resolutions on Ukraine. Kenya is also a key player on the regional scene, building on its engagement in the African Union Transition Mission In Somalia. Its peace efforts in Ethiopia and in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are very much appreciated and will be supported by the EU.

Djibouti, one of the other few anchors of stability in the region, played a very positive role in the recent evacuation of EU citizens from Sudan. It is a hub for EU Mission Atalanta, for European member states such as France, Spain and Italy, but also for US, China, and Japan. However, Djibouti’s stability cannot be taken for granted and we shouldn’t underestimate the various challenges this country is confronted with.

Despite the many challenges, a region of opportunity

Despite these major challenges, the Horn of Africa is also a region of many opportunities. We need to intensify our support to regional economic integration as a means to enhance regional cooperation and prevent violent conflict. We cooperate regularly with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, IGAD, which brings together the countries of the region, on peace security and development actions. The Horn of Africa Initiative, launched in 2019 by the Finance Ministers of seven countries of the region, is also a promising vehicle for the EU. It should be further leveraged around resilience, connectivity and infrastructure in the framework of the Global Gateway initiative.

Beyond the Horn region

At a time when the continent is celebrating 60 years of the African Union, we are well aware that, beyond the Horn region, our relations with Africa as a whole are a crucial issue for the future of the EU, as the last year EU-AU Summit highlighted. One of the decisions taken last Monday was to equip the European External Action Service with a special Task Force to more effectively fight disinformation and better coordinate our

UN-African Union cooperation a must, as landscape of conflict shifts

Source: UN, 12 October 2023

Peace and Security

The United Nations-African Union partnership stands out as a “pillar of multilateralism”, a senior UN official told the Security Council on Thursday, one which has continued to grow in scope and depth.

UN Special Adviser Warns of Genocide in Ethiopia

 Source: The United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, Alice Wairimu Nderitu, warned in a UN press release dated 10 October 2023 of the heightened risk of genocide and related atrocity crimes in Ethiopia, following continued fighting between government troops and local militias in Tigray, Amhara, Afar, and Oromia regions.  

The press release noted that violent confrontations are continuing with mounting allegations of atrocities, war crimes, and crimes against humanity taking place in Ethiopia.  

Ethiopia slams ‘irresponsible and reckless’ statement by UN adviser

Source: AA, Friday October 13, 2023

Ethiopia has denounced a statement by the UN Under-Secretary-General and Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, calling it “irresponsible and reckless.”

A statement issued by Ethiopia’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations said Addis Ababa finds it “deeply regrettable” that Alice Wairimu Nderitu, entrusted with such an important mandate as preventing genocide, has chosen to make “unsubstantiated allegations and inflammatory remarks” against the country.

It said the report the UN relied on lacked a proper on-the-ground investigation and had been compiled remotely from unreliable sources.

“The government is determined to ensure the full implementation of this (peace) agreement (with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.) Ethiopia is in the final stages of formulating a Transitional Justice Policy to ensure accountability and justice,” the statement said.

Nderitu on Tuesday sounded the alarm about the heightened risk of genocide and related atrocity crimes in the Tigray, Amhara, Afar and Oromi regions of Ethiopia.

“The incident reports that we see coming out of Ethiopia are deeply disturbing and constitute a call for action,” she said. “I want to particularly draw the attention of the global community to the continued presence of risk factors for genocide and related atrocity crimes in the country.”

Nderitu said there are reports that entire families have been killed and relatives have been forced to watch horrific crimes committed against their loved ones, while whole communities have been displaced or expelled from their homes.

“The suffering of innocent civilians should never be accepted as inevitable; rather, it must reinforce our commitment to ensure that impunity does not prevail and that all possible prevention actions are prioritized,” she said.

A report by the UN’s International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia earlier this month found that all eight of the common risk factors and the majority of the specific risk factors for atrocity crimes are now present in Ethiopia.

It warned that nearly a year following the ratification of the peace agreement between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the prevailing human rights conditions in the country continue to be deeply concerning.

The UN alleged that extrajudicial killings and mass arrests in Ethiopia’s Amhara region and crimes against humanity have been committed in Ethiopia since Nov. 3, 2020.

Fighting between Ethiopian government forces and Tigray rebels erupted in November 2020, when the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) attacked federal army bases stationed in the northern region. But the hostilities subsided after the two sides signed agreements in Pretoria and Nairobi in November last year.

The Tigray conflict has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions since November 2020.

A UN report released late last year put the number of displaced people at 2.75 million, with 12.5 million children said to require urgent humanitarian assistance.

UN allocates funds for flood response in Somalia

Source: Xinhua net, Friday October 13, 2023

The United Nations (UN) has allocated 15 million U.S. dollars to help mitigate the effects of the much anticipated El Nino rains in Somalia, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said.

The flood response funds target high-risk areas in Hirshabelle and Jubaland states, which have historically experienced the worst impact of floods and are currently projected to have the highest caseloads at risk of riverine flooding, OCHA said in its latest humanitarian report released Tuesday evening.

“Of particular concern is the likely impact of flash flooding in urban areas hosting internally displaced people. Partners estimate that over half of the displacement settlements are in low-lying flood-prone areas,” OCHA said, adding that an additional funding appeal has been made to support life-saving interventions.

On the positive side, OCHA said, the rains are expected to lead to improved availability of pasture and water and increased access to dairy milk, which will enable families to partially meet their minimum food needs.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, more than 1.2 million people living in riverine areas are at high risk of flooding and 1.5 million hectares of land could be inundated if the rains perform as forecasted.

OCHA said humanitarian partners are working closely with the authorities at national and sub-national levels on preparedness and response to mitigate the worst impacts of the El Nino-induced flooding, expected during the Deyr (October-December) rainy season.

Emergency El Nino task forces, comprising sub-national clusters, and national and international humanitarian partners, have been established in Hirshabelle, Jubaland and Southwest states to coordinate the response, OCHA said.

US issues security alert to its citizens in Kenya

NTV Kenya
Source: NTV, Friday October 13, 2023

The U.S. Embassy in Kenya has issued a terror alert in Nairobi, warning Americans to review their personal security plans.

In a statement published on its official website on Friday 13, 2023, the Embassy said there are high risks of terrorism activities targeting areas frequented by foreigners and tourists in Nairobi and elsewhere in Kenya.
“Locations frequented by U.S. citizens and other foreigners and tourists in Nairobi and elsewhere in Kenya continue to be attractive targets to terrorists planning to conduct potentially imminent attacks,” the Embassy said.

As a precaution, the US Embassy asked citizens to be vigilant at locations frequented by tourists or foreigners and review their personal security plans.

Subsequently, American nationals have been urged to be aware of their surroundings, especially while in hotels, embassies, restaurants, malls and markets, schools, police stations, places of worship, and other places frequented by foreigners and tourists.

The embassy also shared phone numbers which the citizens may use to contact them when in need of any assistance.

Analysis: Can Sudan’s civilian leaders save their country from collapse?

Civilian forces were central to the movement that overthrew former President Omar al-Bashir, but are now marginalised.

By Elfadil Ibrahim

Source: Aljazeera, Published On 29 Sep 202329 Sep 2023

Months into a ruinous war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), many Sudanese people have been surprisingly less than welcoming about the re-emergence of the civilian coalition that was part of the country’s 2019 revolution.

In July, one of the leaders of that civilian movement, former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, appeared at a regional summit, after two years of absence from the political scene.

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Despite the war in the country, the re-emergence of figures like Hamdok and the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) a coalition of parties, unions and civil society organisations that the former prime minister led a government with, is seen as opportunistic by many who still remember that the civilian coalition was overthrown in 2021.

“The same faces that disappeared and were silent after the October coup are now lined up in front of foreign diplomats to present themselves as representatives of the Sudanese people,” said Qusai, a 28-year-old pharmacist living in Khartoum.

A splintered democratic scene

Hamdok and the FFC, along with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF, were meant to guide Sudan to democratic governance after the 2019 overthrow of former President Omar al-Bashir, and ostensibly, his old power structures.

But the coalition could not keep itself together, the infighting splintering it to the point where the SAF and RSF were able to stage their own October 2019 coup and remove the civilians from power entirely.

Out of power, observers say that the civilian groups have taken sides, aligning themselves with one of the other of the belligerents. The Democratic Bloc, an offshoot of the FFC, is said to have sided with the SAF, seemingly to push for its demands that more civilian groups be included in any settlement agreement struck in Sudan.

The Democratic Bloc has its political weight, counting among its members factions of Sudan’s two biggest parties, the Reform and Renewal bloc of the Umma Party, and the Jaafar Mirghani-led bloc of the Democratic Unionist Party-Jaafar Mirghani. Also included were regional actors like the Beja Tribal Council from the east, as well as Darfur Governor Minni Minnawi’s Sudan Liberation Movement and Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim’s Justice and Equality Movement, also from Darfur.

On the other hand, the FFC-CC (Central Council), which emerged after the split with the Democratic Bloc, is accused of having fallen for the ploys of RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, who, at least in public, has called for a transitional civilian-led government, hoping to win the favour of such a government, if it comes to pass.

“The FFC-CC denies that they have any sort of political alliance with the RSF, but through their actions, statements and dealings we can deduce the existence of their relationship,” Mohanad Elbalal, a British Sudanese observer and commentator on Sudanese politics, told Al Jazeera.

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Elbalal also pointed to FFC-CC and the RSF’s shared hostility toward the deposed political Islamists of al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP), as well as their shared talking points during the post-2021 coup negotiations and after the outbreak of the war.

“The FFC[-CC] provided political cover [for the RSF] claiming that Islamists were behind this [war], and lobbying the international community that an army victory would see a return of the [al-Bashir] regime overthrown in 2019,” Elbalal said.

In addition, both are against the inclusion of any other political groups – including the Democratic Bloc – in the approval and implementation of a framework agreement. The agreement, a December 2022 deal between the civilian politicians and the generals, had, for a short while, seemed like hope for Sudan’s future.

“The FFC[-CC] wanted to be able to appoint the majority of government ministers,” Elbalal added, referring to statements by Babiker Faisal, a prominent FFC-CC member, days before the war, that the bloc was not open to any changes to the framework agreement.

A teetering framework

Sudan’s civil movement was at the heart of one of the most significant events in the country’s modern history – the 2019 overthrow of al-Bashir.

The FFC had formed in 2018, as discontent built, and was a main mover behind the protests triggered by a deteriorating economy and rising prices. After al-Bashir’s fall, it made an initial power-sharing agreement with the SAF and the RSF in August 2019.

Then the October 2021 coup happened, and the leadership was plunged into negotiations to end the military’s rule, leading to the framework agreement. However, the deal said that the RSF would be absorbed into the SAF – leading to a dispute between army head General Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan and Hemedti as the SAF pressed for a two-year integration while the RSF pushed for a 10-year window.

The breakdown in negotiations that followed, and the ensuing beginning of the conflict, led to accusations being thrown back and forth between the civilian groups

“The parties who were not part of the framework agreement blame those in support of the agreement as being responsible for the current situation,” said Nagi Musa, a civil society activist and founding member of Girifna, a movement that rose up against al-Bashir.

The FFC-CC’s decision to sign the framework agreement is still backed by some, who see it as an attempt to avoid bloodshed.

“[The FFC-CC] saw that the presence of the RSF was a threat to Sudan’s future,” added Wael Aldabi, a mechanical engineer from Khartoum. “It therefore insisted on signing the framework agreement to unify the armed forces through a process of negotiation rather than by force – the way that it is happening right now.”

But others see it as evidence of a silent and continued support for the RSF, in the hope of securing a political future in case the RSF survives the war.

Mohammad Saad, a political observer and journalist who recently left Khartoum for Cairo, said: “None of the other parties within the Central Council have enough popular support to win elections and secure the political influence they would gain through their participation in the framework agreement and their alliance with Hemedti. They may still see him as their golden ticket to power and are careful not to denounce the RSF’s actions”.

Betting on the wrong side?

The FFC-CC’s supposed ties to Hemedti have been problematic for it since the outbreak of the war, particularly as the RSF finds itself accused of more human rights violations, including attacks on civilians. In Khartoum, the RSF has been accused of engaging in a campaign of rape, looting and commandeering of civilian homes, and in Darfur, mass graves have been found, allegedly of victims of the RSF.

One neighbourhood resistance committee member in Khartoum, who did not wish to be named, said that “almost all of the violations recorded by us in our neighbourhood involved individuals in RSF uniform”.

But Yasir Arman, one of the FFC-CC’s leading figures, penned an article after the outbreak of war distancing the body from the RSF, writing that the coalition had an ongoing neutral stance in the conflict and that all hostilities must end.

Al-Tayeb al-Abbasi, secretary-general of the Sudanese Lawyers Union and a member of the FFC-CC, told Al Jazeera from Cairo that “neutrality is not a sign of support for the RSF”.

“To support any side in the conflict is to prefer more death and destruction,” al-Abbasi added. “The priority should be to stop the war and preserve what’s left of the institutions of the state.”

That view was backed by Khalafallah Bushara, a Sudanese doctor living in the United States, who is optimistic that Sudan’s civilian leadership, including the FFC-CC, can help end the war by “putting pressure on foreign nations to apply sanctions [against the warring parties] and hold violators of international humanitarian laws accountable for their actions”.

Despite the denials, according to Alex de Waal, an expert on Sudanese and African Politics and Executive Director of the World Peace Foundation, the FFC-CC’s post-war stance has undermined its reputation among the Sudanese public.

“The RSF’s problem is that its military advances have become political defeats because of the atrocious way its soldiers treat civilians,” de Waal explained. “I don’t think it can recover from the reputational setback, and FFC-CC wasn’t quick enough to distance itself from the RSF to escape the fallout.”

No easy way out

As the conflict continues, it is growing increasingly apparent that there is no easy way out of the predicament Sudan finds itself in.

“People need to come to terms with the reality of complete state collapse,” Ahmed Kodouda, who served as a policy adviser in the post-revolution transitional government, told Al Jazeera.

Kodouda also believes that, while Sudan’s civilian politicians have often come up with ideas for solutions to the country’s conflicts, in reality, they have only led to more indecision and practical delays on the ground.

Some observers do think that civilian leaders are trying to do what they can, even if they have failed so far to find an effective means to rescue Sudan from its current situation.

“The political parties are done for and the door is open for civilian forces to appear in a new form,” Nasreldin Elmahdi, former Vice-President of the National Umma Party and a former co-deputy chairman of the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF), said.

Elmahdi left Sudan a few weeks after the outbreak of the war and is now working with Sudanese activists in Europe through the newly-formed Civil Conglomeration for Peace and Development.

He envisions that the organisation can leverage its location in Europe to document human rights violations in Sudan and forward its findings to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for investigations and prospective prosecutions.

More recently, Sudan’s political parties are continuing their efforts to stop the war through the formation of broader coalitions. The Popular Congress Party, the political Islamist party founded by the late Hassan al-Turabi in 1999 after a fallout with al-Bashir, recently called for a national dialogue bringing together all of the country’s power brokers in Port Sudan. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-North) also called for an anti-war coalition that would encompass Sudan’s broad political spectrum.

Following suit, the FFC-CC and the Democratic Bloc held separate conferences in Cairo in late July in which they both made similar appeals to form broader civilian coalitions to put an end to the fighting and restore a transition to civilian-led rule.

“There has been a lot of talk about forming united anti-war coalitions since the war started, but nothing has come of it and nothing will come of it because these initiatives lack coordination and the different coalitions are still sticking to their pre-war positions and alliances,” Saad commented.

Al-Abbasi, who is also one of the founding members of the Sudanese Professionals’ Association (SPA), an umbrella group representing several trade unions that spearheaded the popular protests that led to the demise of the al-Bashir government, is also pessimistic about the state of Sudan’s political parties.

“Their divisions contributed to the weakening of the revolution, and led to the current state of affairs,” he said.

Instead, al-Abbasi believes that one of the last hopes for Sudan’s rescue is through civil society groups and professional unions, given that civil society organisations and some unions have remained non-partisan and independent bastions of civilian power.

“The involvement of union members in politics caused serious rifts in the Sudanese Professionals’ Association,” al-Abbasi said. “We don’t want this mistake to repeat itself,” al-Abbasi said.

While the FFC once symbolised hope for a democratic transition in Sudan, its gradual fragmentation reflects a concerning trend – the strengthening of armed actors and the weakening ability of the civilian bloc to shape Sudan’s political present and future.

“[All] political parties in Sudan need to rebrand themselves,” Kodouda said. “ They need to improve their image in front of the Sudanese people and Sudan needs to find a new model and new way in which it can exist.”

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA

Ethiopia Seeks Access to the Sea

Source:  Ethiopia’s The Reporter published on 30 September 2023 an editorial titled “Ensuring Ethiopia Regains Peaceful Access to the Sea.”

Ethiopia enjoyed unfettered access to the Red Sea for most of its history until it became landlocked in 1993 following the secession of Eritrea.  Access to the sea is a matter of vital economic and geostrategic importance for Ethiopia.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reportedly vowed last July that Ethiopia will secure direct access to a port peacefully or, if necessary, by force.  This has led to speculation in the country about the significance of the alleged remark and its impact on relations with Eritrea, the most likely country Abiy had in mind.  It has also resulted in concerns about tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  

The Reporter makes cleat that attempting to accomplish this objective through force is a non-starter and bound to cause unimaginable horror and destruction.  The only feasible option is to pursue the goal through peaceful diplomatic options.  

For additional background on Ethiopia’s desire for access to the Red Sea, see “Landlocked Ethiopia Wants Better Sea Access: A Port Deal with Neighbors Could Benefit the Region” by Namhia Matshanda,  University of the Western Cape